In this Market Focus episode of the Oil & Gas Journal ReEnterprised podcast, Conglin Xu, managing editor-economics, sits down with Dennis Kessler, senior vice-president of trading at BOK Financial, to examine the forces reshaping global oil markets amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Drawing on nearly three decades of experience in energy trading and risk management, Kessler offers insight into the fallout from escalating Middle East tensions, the breakdown of US-Iran diplomatic efforts, and the critical role of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil supplies traditionally flows.

The discussion explores what it would take to achieve a meaningful de-escalation in the region and how market participants are assessing the risks. Kessler argues that restoring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be central to any lasting stability, while Iran's oil exports and broader economic pressures could influence future negotiations. He also shares his perspective on how OPEC+ is responding to disruptions, the alliance's efforts to restore production, and the growing competitive pressure it faces from producers outside the Gulf region.

Turning to North America, Kessler examines the outlook for US shale producers in a higher-price environment. With crude prices holding above $80/bbl, he discusses signs of increased drilling activity, stronger production growth potential, and the continued emphasis on hedging and capital discipline among operators. The conversation also highlights advances in drilling technology and efficiency that could enable US producers to respond more quickly to market opportunities while managing downside risk.

Looking further ahead, the episode considers whether recent disruptions will accelerate a long-term shift away from traditional Middle East oil chokepoints. Kessler discusses the growing role of US, Canadian, African, and Latin American supplies, expanding export infrastructure, and the possibility that today's high prices could ultimately lead to demand destruction, increased competition, and renewed market oversupply.

For anyone following global crude markets, OPEC+ strategy, US shale growth, energy security, and future oil price trends, this conversation provides a timely and thought-provoking outlook on the evolving global energy landscape.

About our guest

Dennis Kissler, senior vice-president of trading at BOK Financial, specializes in developing unique hedging strategies to assist producers as well as end users in minimizing energy market risk exposure. A registered commodity trading advisor (CTA), he has worked in the futures trading/hedging industry for more than 27 years, including 12 years as a floor trader/broker at the CME exchange, where he still owns a floor membership.

Kissler has worked for BOK Financial since 2007 helping to establish and grow the energy trade desk which now ranks among some of the largest regional trading/hedging desks in the US. He is a featured commentary provider for various news outlets including Bloomberg News, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and CNBC.