Oil prices rose above $100/bbl Sept. 9 as escalating Middle East fighting and continued disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened concerns over global oil supplies, while a rebound in Chinese crude buying added to upward pressure.

Front-month Brent crude rose nearly 3% to above $100/bbl, its first move above that level since late July, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed above $95/bbl. Brent has gained about 25% since early August as expectations for a near-term resolution to the 6-month US-Iran conflict have faded.

The latest rally followed US attacks on five Iranian oil tankers and strikes by Iran-backed Houthis on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, including the 400,000-b/d Jazan refinery. The escalation increased concern that disruptions could spread beyond Hormuz to Saudi infrastructure and to the alternative export routes that have absorbed rerouted Gulf barrels.

Shipping through Hormuz remains sharply constrained. Six commodity vessels transited the strait Sept. 8, down from 9 a day earlier and a 10-day average of about 12, according to preliminary Kpler data. S&P Global Commodities at Sea data put the daily average at 135 vessels in February, before the conflict began on Feb. 28.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated crude oil and petroleum liquids moving through Hormuz averaged 4.9 million b/d in second-quarter 2026, down from 21.6 million b/d in fourth-quarter 2025 before the conflict began. Months of reduced Middle East exports have drawn down inventories, leaving the market more exposed to additional supply losses.

Product markets are tighter still. Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy told the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference Sept. 8 that the market is missing nearly 2 million b/d of refined products from the Middle East and another 2 million b/d from Russia, with Gulf exports running at about 9 million b/d of crude against just 1 million b/d of products. Diesel margins have set records in both Europe and the US, with little spare refining capacity available as the Northern Hemisphere approaches peak winter demand.

Chinese buying, which collapsed after the conflict began, has started to recover. China imported 37.93 million tonnes of crude in August, or 8.93 million b/d, up 6.2% from July and the second consecutive month-on-month gain, according to customs data released Sept. 8. Volumes remained 23.4% below year-earlier levels, however, and imports for the first 8 months were down 14.6%. The pickup followed Beijing's easing of refined product export controls in July, which had been imposed in March to protect domestic supply.

Goldman Sachs lifted its December 2026 Brent and WTI forecasts by $5/bbl, to $85/bbl and $80/bbl, and its 2027 forecasts to $80/bbl and $75/bbl, on a revised assumption that Middle East shipping disruptions run into next year.