By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, July 15 -- Strong demand growth is expected for the cumene, phenol, and polycarbonate world markets, said Chemical Market Associates Inc. (CMAI), Houston.
CMAI recently completed the 2003 World Cumene/Phenol & Polycarbonate Analysis. This study provides an overview of global polycarbonate markets, a driver for the phenol business.
CMAI consultants Ben Smith in Houston and John Bonarius in London said strong growth has been a trademark for cumene since 1993.
"While 2001 was a disappointment, the market continues to press on and has returned to growing ways. Demand should surpass 9, 10, and maybe 11 million tons during the forecast years with yearly additions of over 400,000 tonnes/year," they said.
In addition, most of the new phenol units are intent on building integrated cumene units.
The biggest risks to cumene demand will come from lower-than-expected-polycarbonate growth, new feedstock routes to phenol, and lack of propylene supply. In the very long term, another risk is new feedstock routes to bisphenol or polycarbonate, the study said.
Unlike many other petrochemical products, phenol demand is concentrated in highly developed industrialized economies, with almost 90% of demand coming from North America, West Europe, and Northeast Asia.
Meanwhile, a "long feared propylene shortage" in Asia could impact the cost structure of these new cumene-phenol units and likely would maintain the US as a major exporter to world markets.
Global demand for polycarbonate improved in 2002, but it was almost entirely attributed to China. Import statistics show that China imported over 400,000 tonnes of polycarbonate in 2002, up 150,000 tonnes from 2001.
With the new start-ups in 2001 through 2003, it is likely that much of this demand is really inventory building and initial stocking rather than true consumption, the report said.
