Demand patterns for tankers to transport petrochemicals show Southeast Asia will increase its consumption of petrochemicals during the next few years.
However, an increasing volume of Southeast Asia's demand will be met by producers in the region, predicts Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd., London.
Drewry said, "Seaborne trade in organic chemicals increased consistently between 1982 and 1994, rising on average 6.9% per annum. The buildup of base and intermediate chemical capacity in the Far East, however, means deep sea trade volumes in these chemicals between North America/Europe and Southeast Asia will gradually decline."
The analyst said 10 chemicals-methanol, styrene, ethylene glycol, ethylene dichloride, benzene, xylene-p, toluene, acrylonitrile, vinyl chloride, and xylene mixtures-account for about 60% of seaborne trade in organic chemicals.
About 100 million metric tons of additional organic chemicals capacity is either under construction or on the drawing boards. Forty percent of the new capacity is in Southeast Asia.
"Southeast Asia is the rising star in the chemicals market," Drewry said.
The region accounts for 55% of the world's population vs. only 30% of its chemical consumption. But at current growth rates it will account for 40% of world chemical demand by 2000.
"Countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia are adding base chemical capacity to keep pace with their growing economies," Drewry said. "Others-like Singapore-are positioning themselves as major chemical export centers, while in addition there is enormous interest in new capacity in China and India."
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