Editorial: Dominance requires stability
Domestic oil and natural gas production is a strategic national asset. Abundant, affordable energy boosts economic growth, reinforces national security, and gives the US geopolitical leverage. The expansion of US LNG exports has transformed natural gas from a commercial commodity to an instrument of foreign policy.
But Washington’s actual influence over the production of either natural gas or crude oil remains limited. Presidents have some ability to accelerate leasing, shorten permitting timelines, and remove unnecessary regulatory burdens. They cannot, however, discern profitable drilling locations, reduce oilfield service costs, or persuade publicly traded operators to abandon the capital discipline shareholders have demanded since the shale industry's boom-and-bust years.
US-focused producers are fundamentally different companies than they were a decade ago. Investors reward returns, not production records, and balance sheets matter more than barrels. Even in a friendlier regulatory environment, operators will continue allocating capital based on economic fundamentals rather than political enthusiasm.
But permitting reform is not infrastructure policy. Companies building pipelines, power transmission lines, processing plants, and export terminals in the US still struggle to do so on predictable schedules. This is particularly problematic because the “energy dominance” agenda pursued by the current administration is ultimately an infrastructure project. And even with the expected jump in domestic demand driven by data-center development and expanded electrification of other segments, the desire to supply overseas markets lies at its core.
US producers likewise compete globally for investment capital, and no amount of sloganeering will overcome the combined weight of international chaos and domestic uncertainty now being wrought on a nearly continuous basis by US leadership. Instead, capital disbursements are delayed or diverted, constraining development of needed infrastructure while technological innovation increasingly happens overseas and investors seek jurisdictions offering long-term policy stability.
Whither the workforce
Permitting reform also does nothing to address a shortage of qualified people to complete the work that needs doing. Oil and gas companies are no longer focused solely on producing hydrocarbons. They are deploying artificial intelligence to optimize production, investing in methane detection and emissions reductions technology, expanding carbon-capture projects, improving operational efficiency through automation, and exploring opportunities in hydrogen and geothermal.
Much of the industry's experienced workforce is approaching retirement. At the same time, petroleum engineering bachelor’s degrees awarded have fallen precipitously, from a 2017 peak above 2,600 to a 2026 projection of roughly 500, according to data gathered for the Petroleum Engineering Department Heads Association. And oil and gas companies now also must compete for software developers, automation engineers, robotics specialists, cybersecurity professionals, and data scientists in addition to more traditional roles such drilling engineers and project-design experts.
Already, as of May 2025, the National Science Foundation had cut the number of graduate fellowships offered in half, and 43% of respondents to a survey conducted by the National Postdoctoral Association felt that their position was “threatened” while 35% described their research as “delayed or otherwise in jeopardy.”1
We haven’t (yet) gotten to the point in the US that there’s an actual shortage of bright individuals ready to enter the workforce, but the circumstances outlined above make it increasingly understandable why even those interested in applying their smarts to the oil and gas industry may no longer necessarily see the US as the ideal place to do so.
Failure to address any looming brain drain would further undermine the possibility of achieving the dominance so ardently sought.
- Reif, L.R., “America’s Coming Brain Drain,” Foreign Affairs, May 6, 2025.