California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) issued an executive order Sept. 23 requiring all new cars and new passenger trucks sold in the state to be zero-emission vehicles by 2035, a move that would take a big bite out of US gasoline demand.
He further required that all medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks, new or not, that operate in California be zero-emission vehicles by 2045 “where feasible.”
It is uncertain whether he has the legal authority under the federal Clean Air Act to order such a transition. Economic realism also is a question, for new passenger vehicles as well as for larger trucks.
Newsom tasked the California Air Resources Board to write the regulations implementing his order. He cited climate change as his primary motivation.
California accounted for 10.2% of US gasoline consumption and 5.5% of US distillate consumption in 2018, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
The agency estimated California’s consumption that year at 956,000 b/d gasoline and 230,000 b/d distillate, while national consumption was 9.33 million b/d gasoline and 4.14 million b/d distillate.
Older vehicles would be able to continue burning gasoline, as would vehicles bought used rather than new.
Legality and practicality
Chet Thompson, president of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, an association that includes almost all US refiners, issued a statement referring to Newsom’s order as an “aspirational goal.”
“Governor Newsom lacks the authority to ban the internal combustion engine,” Thompson said. “Regardless, pursuing this goal would be among the most inefficient, unpopular, and regressive methods to reduce carbon emissions.”
The state and the Trump administration already have been arguing over whether the federal government can revoke a waiver under the Clean Air Act that has allowed the state to set some automobile standards at levels tougher than those of the federal government.
The California Fuels & Convenience Alliance (CFCA), an association of marketers, questioned the pragmatism and fairness of the order designed to force a transition to electric vehicles.
“Simply put, our power grid does not have the capacity to bear the weight of carrying one of the largest personal transportation sectors in the world,” the CFCA said.
“Most importantly, electric vehicles leave behind California’s most vulnerable populations,” the CFCA said. “Even with hundreds of millions of dollars in state and federal subsidies, even the cheapest of EV’s remain firmly out of reach for many working-class Californians.”
Newsom’s announcement expressed faith in economic trends. “By the time the new rule goes into effect, zero-emission vehicles will almost certainly be cheaper and better than the traditional fossil fuel powered cars,” the announcement said.