OPEC+ has approved a fresh increase in oil production quotas for September of roughly 188,000 b/d, completing the phased reversal of voluntary supply cuts first introduced in 2023. The decision, confirmed in an official OPEC statement following a virtual meeting on Aug. 2, 2026, marks the sixth consecutive monthly increase by the group this year.

Seven core members of the alliance—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—agreed to raise output targets. The move completes the unwinding of the 1.65-million b/d voluntary supply cut originally agreed in 2023, back when the group still included the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which exited OPEC in May.

The group said the adjustment would also give participating countries an opportunity to accelerate compensation for previous overproduction, and it reiterated commitment to the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation, with compliance to be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

While the September hike is now finalized, OPEC+ is widely expected to pause further increases starting in the fourth quarter. Though the group's official statement gave no explicit guidance on fourth-quarter policy, OPEC+ sources cited by Reuters and analysts—including Rystad Energy's Jorge Leon—say a pause is likely as the alliance assesses market conditions after finishing the restoration of the 2023 cuts. A separate layer of roughly 2 million b/d in cuts, dating to 2022, remains in place and is expected to continue through the end of 2026.

The steady stream of monthly increases comes against a backdrop of major market disruption. Ongoing Middle East tensions—including disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz—have complicated the group's ability to translate higher quotas into actual barrels reaching the market. Russia, in particular, continues to produce below its OPEC+ target of about 9.8 million b/d, with output near 9 million b/d amid repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on its energy infrastructure. The UAE's departure from the group in May has added a further layer of uncertainty about long-term cohesion.

“OPEC+ has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts. The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalize,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, “Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC+ has little incentive to rush into further supply changes.”

A decision on October output levels is expected at the group's next scheduled meeting on Sept. 6, 2026.