First oil from Nelson field on Feb. 18 marked the passing of an era in the North Sea oil and gas industry.
Nelson's 22,000 metric ton top-sides and 8,500 metric ton jacket may comprise the last giant U.K. platform.
With U.K. development past its peak, fabrication and installation companies face a future of fewer and smaller developments.
The four main U.K. construction yards are in Scotland. Mackay Consultants, Inverness, reckons a recent drop in orders has meant the four yards were running at less than 20% of capacity in 1993.
Scotland's fabricators have placed much of the blame for their recent decline on unfair competition from foreign yards, "...but much of the debate has been badly informed," Mackay said.
Mackay said the decline in business for Scottish yards is roughly due 40% to the overall downturn in U.K. North Sea work, 25% to a move away from conventional steel platforms, 25% to lack of competitiveness of Scottish fabricators, and 10% to increased competition from overseas fabricators.
DOWNSIZING
Of 30 U.K. fabrication orders expected in 1994 and 1995, Mackay identified only nine conventional platforms. Eleven are likely to be subsea developments, while another four are possible floaters.
"A key feature is the absence of any order over 10,000 metric tons, which used to be the 'bread and butter' of Scottish yards," Mackay said.
Only two projects approach that scale: a 9,000 metric ton platform in Elgin/Franklin fields for Elf Enterprise Caledonia Ltd. and an 8,000 metric ton platform in Britannia field for Chevron U.K. Ltd. and Conoco (U.K.) Ltd.
Scotland's fabrication yards were built to handle large jackets in the range 10,000-20,000 metric tons. Mackay said this makes them less competitive for smaller scale projects, although recent tenders were said to show Scottish yards have cut their costs substantially.
Mackay expects utilization of Scotland's yards will not rise beyond 25% of capacity in 1994 and 1995. This makes it "likely that at least one yard, and possibly two, will close down."
BARGE DEMAND
While yards that built the giant platforms are threatened, there is more hope for two enormous derrick barges that put most of the platforms in place.
Micoperi 7000, operated by Micoperi Offshore SpA, Milan, can lift 14,000 metric tons. DB 102, operated by Heeremac, Leiden, Netherlands, can lift 12,000 metric tons.
Future heavy lifts will mostly be 2,000-4,000 metric tons. Lifting may be just as complicated as that for 10,000 metric ton structures. Increasingly difficult field development projects will require more accurate positioning of structures in rough weather.
The vessels' dynamic positioning and crane reach will be a boon. Long reach over platforms also suits them to changing out modules, a service that will see greater demand as older fields such as Brent are redeveloped.
Copyright 1994 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.
