US crude oil production will average a record 13.8 million b/d in 2026, up from the previous record of 13.7 million b/d set in 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Crude production averaged 13.7 million b/d during first-half 2026, an increase of 0.3 million b/d, or 2%, from the same period a year earlier. EIA attributed most of the growth to increased output from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico and the Federal Gulf of Mexico.

Permian crude oil production is forecasted to average 6.8 million b/d in 2026, up 3% from 2025. EIA said higher crude oil prices are supporting production growth in the basin. West Texas Intermediate averaged $84/bbl through August, compared with $65/bbl in 2025.

Current prices remain above reported Permian breakeven levels. According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey in March, oil executives reported average breakeven prices of $69/bbl in the Midland basin and $63/bbl in the Delaware basin.

Federal Gulf of Mexico crude production increased 10%, or 0.2 million b/d, during first-half 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. EIA expects full-year 2026 Gulf production will increase 3%, or 0.1 million b/d.

Four major projects that came online during the past year contributed to the Gulf increase. The Shenandoah floating production unit has averaged 70,000 b/d since starting production in July 2025, while the Ballymore subsea tieback has averaged 58,000 b/d since April 2025. The Whale floating production unit has averaged 38,000 b/d since January 2025, and the Salamanca floating production unit has averaged 25,000 b/d since late 2025.

EIA expects four additional smaller projects to come online by yearend, providing further support for Gulf production growth.