Iraqi oil exports swell OPEC output

OPEC Crude Oil Production [42999 bytes] Total oil production by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members averaged 26.69 million b/d in February, as they cashed in on recent high oil prices. According to Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) estimates, total output rose 140,000 b/d from the January average (see table, p. 31). The total was buoyed by Iraq's push to achieve sales of $1 billion for the first 90 days of its oil-for-humanitarian aid deal with the United Nations,

March 31, 1997

2 min read

OPEC Crude Oil Production [42999 bytes]

Total oil production by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members averaged 26.69 million b/d in February, as they cashed in on recent high oil prices.

According to Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) estimates, total output rose 140,000 b/d from the January average (see table, p. 31).

The total was buoyed by Iraq's push to achieve sales of $1 billion for the first 90 days of its oil-for-humanitarian aid deal with the United Nations, said MEES, while Nigeria also squeezed out a further 50,000 b/d.

Yamani's warning

Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, chairman of London's Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES) warned recently that oil prices have fallen by $5/bbl since the beginning of the year and are likely to fall further if planned increases in non-OPEC production in 1997 materialize (see Watching the World, p. 30).

"According to CGES," said Yamani, "the price of oil is expected to weaken considerably in the summer. However, given the tendency of the oil market to anticipate situations, it is quite likely that oil prices will drop heavily even sooner than that."

CGES predicts the price of OPEC basket crude oil will fall to an average of $19.40/bbl in the fourth quarter, if new non-OPEC production falls short of expectations.

If new non-OPEC output exceeds forecasts, however, CGES believes the price of OPEC basket crudes will fall to an average of $14/bbl in the fourth quarter.