GRI sees natural gas as a key to reining greenhouse gas emissions

Now's the time to start taking at least modest steps toward controlling greenhouse gas emissions, says Stephen Ban, president and CEO of Gas Research Institute, Chicago.

And natural gas figure strongly in implementing such steps, he contends.

These steps, coupled with improving efficiency and lowering pollution in a "no regrets" approach, would yield some benefit even if future evidence disproves the link between human action and possible catastrophic climate change.

This approach also would be consistent with either of the proposed scenarios for action on global warming that are being discussed internationally, Ban told the opening session of the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission's annual meeting this month in Santa Fe, N.M. (see related story, p. 24).

The scenarios

One scenario is to limit or cap annual emissions of the major greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, allowing no increase beyond some specific level-say 1990 levels, which is a target some advocate.

This would not reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but it would slow down their rate of growth. Under this scenario, "we would learn to 'live with' the consequences that some researchers conjecture might result: dramatically warmer temperatures and a less stable climate," Ban said.

The other scenario is to stabilize the concentration of CO₂ or other gases in the atmosphere at some level. This would mean reducing annual emissions so that natural absorbants such as plants and the oceans could remove these gases from the air as rapidly as they are being added.

This scenario would require major cuts in fossil fuel use to reduce CO₂ and nitrogen oxides emissions, plus major efforts to control methane leakage.

Cuts in fuel use would be costly, he said, and would likely involve stringent controls, incentive programs, and carbon taxes.

Reductions by industrialized and developing countries would be critical, because almost 70% of the projected increase in carbon emissions during 1995-2010 will come from developing countries (see chart, p. 17).

For example, the expected increase in CO₂ emissions from the U.S. from now to 2015 is only about one third of the increase expected from China and India. "If those countries have no emissions reduction programs, our efforts to cut back would have little impact from a global perspective," Ban said.

Role of natural gas

Natural gas can play a major role in U.S. and international efforts to achieve key climate change goals that may be adopted, Ban told the Iogcc audience.

At the same time, expanded gas use, coupled with development of more efficient and low emission technologies using gas, can pay dividends to the U.S. natural gas industry and to gas customers everywhere.

The climate change conference in Kyoto this month makes clear that programs to reduce the possibility of global warming will be moved to the front burner on the world stage, he said.

In view of the major role played by developing countries in future emissions projections, diplomats and economists face a daunting challenge in defining economically acceptable programs to address this complex and controversial issue. The U.S. and other industrial powers cannot do it all alone, Ban said. "But curtailing the development of emerging countries is not acceptable."

From a technology perspective, however, advanced natural gas products and processes-some already available, some being developed, others quite speculative-could be readily put to use under a variety of scenarios today and tomorrow for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

By supporting collaborative research and development over the past 2 decades, the gas industry has positioned itself for action on global warming, Ban said. And continued future support for development and commercialization of high-efficiency, low-emission technology options is critical if gas is to play its optimum role.

There are sound policies to follow in responding to the controversy of climate change, he said. Those include policies that:

• Continue research to measure changes in climate and to improve analytical models.
• Establish realistic and achievable emission reduction targets for the long term.
• Identify resulting environmental and economic effects now.
• Seek meaningful commitments from developing and industrialized countries.
• Provide for flexible response with market-driven solutions.
• Tie in solutions to other problems, such as efficiency, air quality, and alternative fuel use.

"As a leading member of the world community," Ban said, the U.S. "cannot stonewall this problem, particuarly because we are the source of about 25% of the world's CO₂ emissions. We can, however, exploit our technological strengths and the natural advantage of natural gas as we work to find solutions."

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