AGA: LONG TERM U.S. GAS SUPPLY ADEQUATE

U.S. gas supply will keep pace with demand well into the next century, the American Gas Association predicts. AGA says 19.9 and 22.3 tcf/year of gas will be available in 1995 and 2010, respectively, with gas prices rising toward $4/Mcf in 1990 dollars by 2010. Even if more moderate price growth occurs$3.25/Mcf in 1990 dollars by 2010-total supply likely will range between 19.5 tcf in 1995 and 20.4 tcf in 2010. Incentives could increase the supply to 25.8 tcf by 2010.

Oct. 28, 1991

2 min read

U.S. gas supply will keep pace with demand well into the next century, the American Gas Association predicts.

AGA says 19.9 and 22.3 tcf/year of gas will be available in 1995 and 2010, respectively, with gas prices rising toward $4/Mcf in 1990 dollars by 2010.

Even if more moderate price growth occurs$3.25/Mcf in 1990 dollars by 2010-total supply likely will range between 19.5 tcf in 1995 and 20.4 tcf in 2010.

Incentives could increase the supply to 25.8 tcf by 2010.

AGA said the 1 million mile U.S. gas transportation system is flexible and can deliver more than it currently does. In addition, industry has a 3.4 tcf seasonal gas storage capability.

SUPPLY SOURCES

AGA's gas supply committee estimated that Lower 48 gas supply will range from 17 tcf to 21.5 tcf/year, or 81-87% of total supply, from 1995 to 2010 depending on wellhead prices, regulations, government policies, and environmental initiatives.

It estimated recoverable conventional Lower 48 gas resources at more than 900 tcf, including proved reserves.

Other supplemental sources of gas currently provide less than 10% of total U.S. natural gas supply.

However, AGA said, this percentage is likely to increase during the next 20 years, so that by 2010 sources other than the Lower 48 may contribute as much as 19% of total gas supply.

Pipeline deliveries from Canada are likely to be the dominant supplemental supply source. Other imports, such as liquefied natural gas, will contribute less than 1 tcf to total U.S. gas supply through 2010. AGA said all imports, including those from Canada and Mexico, range between 13% and 15% of total supply in 2010 for various scenarios.