Global demand growth for butadiene is set to accelerate heading into the turn of the century.
Butadiene demand growth will increase at an average rate of 4.2%/year during 1996-2002, according to a new study by Chemical Market Associates Inc., Houston.
This rate is 35% greater than the compounded annual rate of 3.1% recorded during 1992-96.
Regional breakout
Regions with the fastest demand growth for butadiene are South America, eastern Europe, Africa-Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.
Eastern European demand is expected to rebound from declines seen in the early 1990s, and the Africa-Middle East region will continue as the smallest consuming region for butadiene. The Asia-Pacific region is expected to become the largest consuming region of refined butadiene in 1997.
New butadiene producing capacity is reaching a 2.9%/year growth rate. More than 1 million tons of new capacity will come on stream in the Asia-Pacific region (namely China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand), but demand is forecast to outpace the rate of capacity additions.
The higher rate of growth in butadiene demand versus new capacity additions will push butadiene plant operating rates to more than 86% of designed capacity by the end of the period. Plant operating rates reached 80.1% in 1996.
Derivatives breakout
Butadiene demand is concentrated in its use in the manufacture of synthetic rubbers: chloroprene rubber, nitrile rubber, polybutadiene rubber, and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR).
Demand for butadiene in the production of adiponitrile (for the production of nylon) is expected to see the highest average annual rate of growth-6%-for all derivatives during 1996-2002.
This will depend upon the timely start-up of new capacity in China set for 2001. Polybutadiene will lead all derivatives in the overall increase in consumption of butadiene during the forecast period.
Demand for butadiene in this application will increase by just under 500,000 tons/year during the period.
Synthetic rubber will improve its market share in competition with natural rubber. This results in higher production rates in SBR plants during the period despite the addition of almost 700,000 tons of new capacity.
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