The Kyoto process

The Kyoto treaty on global warming has achieved status like that of Middle East peace. With goals not grounded in reality, it promises to become an endless process toward which opportunistic politicians genuflect when they need to look righteous and strong.

Nov. 9, 1998

4 min read

Even before last week's meeting in Buenos Aires to check progress toward Kyoto's goals, supporters of the process warned interested observers not to expect much. They were right. With prices of fossil fuels low and the world's growth economies in shambles, costly solar power and wind energy don't get much support these days in countries likely to account for most future additions to emissions of greenhouse gases. Since that's not likely to change even after growth economies recover, emissions of greenhouse gases will increase no matter what developed countries do. There's no need to snuff the campfire, though: A new study suggests nature absorbs carbon dioxide, the most abundant greenhouse gas, faster than previously believed.

Kyoto's goals

For futile purposes unsubstantiated by science, Kyoto prescribes personal sacrifice in established economies. And the sacrifice increases as an inverse function of oil and gas prices. Politically, therefore, things look dark for implementation of Kyoto's gauzy goals.

Process, then. Representatives of national governments will meet from time to time to assert their concern about the hypothetical threat of catastrophic warming, to declare their commitment to Kyoto's objectives, and to outline the sacrifices that others must make.

For "others," read "Americans." The Kyoto protocol calls for deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. Before last week's meeting, Ritt Bjerregaard, the European Union's environment commissioner, urged the U.S. to sign the treaty "as soon as possible." Because the U.S. is the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, it receives special international attention in the global warming process.

It should be receiving special attention at home. As expected, the administration of President Bill Clinton is systematically capitulating to the Kyoto process. Needing to rise above serial infidelity and related perjury, Clinton acts out every transcendent role his handlers can choreograph on his behalf. To Clinton, Kyoto presents occasions to wax presidential.

Kyoto implementation wouldn't cost much, insist White House propagandists. Janet Yellen, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, stands by her preposterous claim that the U.S. can move toward the Kyoto target-a 30% cut in carbon emissions against projections during 1990-2020-at a cost of only $7-12 billion/year during 2008-12 (1996 dollars). Yet the Energy Information Administration recently put the cost at $77-338 billion/year (1992 dollars).

The flow of events is important. Before the Kyoto meeting, the Clinton administration acted doubtful about the need to overhaul patterns of energy use as a warming precaution. Then last December, over congressional objection, it signed the flawed Kyoto treaty and began its campaign to make Americans believe the requirements wouldn't cost much. So the agency responsible for studying these things rose above what must have been delicious palace intrigue to issue a needed message: Get real.

On global warming, the Clinton White House is no more believable than it is on presidential promiscuity.

Fount of righteousness

Congress holds the world's only hope. It should treat the Kyoto accord as what it is: a bottomless fount of righteousness for politically needy leaders. Clinton demonstrated the analog when he hustled together a piecemeal Middle East peace accord just before last week's congressional elections. Israelis and Palestinian responded with a new round of killing. But Clinton got the photo opportunity he needed when he needed it.

The world doesn't need more grand processes. On global warming it just needs to get real.