ECONOMICS, PRODUCER POLITICS WILL SHAPE OIL MARKETS THROUGH 1996

Two main forces will shape the oil market during the next 3 years. The pace of worldwide economic growth will determine demand growth. Although energy use efficiency has improved, especially in the industrialized world, demand for energy and oil products remains chiefly a function of economic activity. And producing nation politics will have much to say about supply. A crucial and unpredictable variable is when Iraq, now subject to a United Nations trade embargo, resumes exports at

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