Shipyards in the U.S. are well positioned to help build vessels, including tankers, needed for world commercial seaborne transportation through 1998.
IMA Associates Inc., Washington, says domestic commercial shipbuilding opportunities for U.S. shipyards during 1994-98 won't offset the downturn of work for the U.S. Navy. However, international shipbuilding activity is poised to take off, with $37-54 billion to be spent in seven export sectors in the next 5 years on new ships and shipping systems.
High on the list of marine construction opportunities through 1998 is world demand for oil, liquefied natural gas, chemical tankers, and floating processing plants.
IMA predicts more than 2,200 new oil tankers, alone, must be built worldwide in the next 5 years to replace obsolete vessels and serve changing transportation patterns. International spending to build new vessels will be three times commercial and military shipbuilding outlays in the U.S.
IMA said tight financial markets and strong global competition, including financial assistance by many foreign governments, will make it hard for U.S. shipyards to become more reliant on international commercial work. However, U.S. shipbuilders and marine equipment manufacturers have enough skilled, low cost workers, access to capital, and modem construction yards and management practices to compete.
SELECTED CONCLUSIONS
IMA's study also forecast that during the next 5 years:
- 36% of crude oil tankers in service today will be retired, including 36 of 130 U.S. coastal tankers forced from service by single hull restrictions in the Oil Pollution Act of 1990.
- Declining U.S. oil production and growing imports will add 1 trillion ton-miles to global seaborne crude trade.
- Substitution of imported petroleum products in the U.S. for domestic refinery output will create a need for another 195 petroleum product tankers.
- About 530 more LNG carriers and chemical tankers will be needed.
IMA found the U.S. offshore support vessel sector is showing signs of a revival, although equipment utilization and day rates are not yet adequate to justify major capital spending on new support vessels. Still, the company expects strong orders in the Gulf of Mexico through 1998 for large anchor handling tugboats and supply vessels.
IMA estimates that $3-5 billion could be spent in the U.S. in the next 5 years in six marine construction sectors. Particularly important for U.S. marine constructors is financial backing newly available from the U.S. government.
"Recent legislation providing federal financial guarantees for ship export orders puts U.S. shipbuilders in position to match the best financing terms of their competitors," IMA said.
Copyright 1994 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.
