OTC 2026: Clarkson forecasts 24% decline in offshore oil, gas capex
Clarkson Research Services Ltd. expects $85 billion in global capital expenditures (capex) on offshore oil and gas projects in 2026, down 24% from $111.9 billion in 2025 final investment decisions. About $34 billion have already been committed in 2026, according to Clarkson analysis released in advance of the 2026 Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. The forecast total would be the smallest offshore capex since 2020.
The subsea engineering, procurement, and construction backlog stands at a record high $52 billion, according to Clarkson, with North Sea subsea charter rates up 12% year-to-date (ytd) as availability tightens.
The maritime research company sees the ongoing Iran war as having mixed impacts on the markets it covers, with operational difficulties in the Persian Gulf partially offset by increased activity in other parts of the world and a renewed focus on energy security in general. After a softer 2025, the Clarkson’s Offshore Rate Index (tracking day rates across drilling, support vessels, and subsea) is up 3% so far in 2026, to reach 111 points (11% above its 2014 high and double its 2018 low).
Global jack-up demand sits at 387 units (+13 units year-on-year) with utilization at 89%; premium jack-up rates are up 11% ytd, reaching about $103,000/day. Floater demand sits at 130 units (80% utilization); ultra-deepwater rates are up 5% so far this year (at $373,000/day) after softening 13% in 2025.
Offshore support vessel markets have picked up, with West Africa platform support vessel rates up 5% ytd and North Sea rates up 6%.
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Christopher E. Smith
Editor in Chief
Chris joined Oil & Gas Journal in 2005 as Pipeline Editor, having already worked for more than a decade in a variety of oil and gas industry analysis and reporting roles. He became editor-in-chief in 2019 and head of content in 2025.