CERAWeek 2026 opens under shadow of Middle East conflict

Expectations of sustained supply tightness may reshape energy operations strategies, with Chevron cautioning that regional disruptions may outlast market assumptions and TotalEnergies pivoting US capital back toward hydrocarbons, executives said during the first full day of CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston.

Escalating Middle East tensions are an underlying focus at this year’s CERAWeek, held Mar. 23-27, where energy executives, policymakers, and investors gathered under the theme “Convergence and Competition: Energy, Technology and Geopolitics” and warned of prolonged supply disruptions, tighter global markets, and a renewed shift toward oil and natural gas investment.

The conference opened amid the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran, which has disrupted key energy flows and raised concerns over the security of global oil and LNG supplies. With the Strait of Hormuz under pressure, markets have been hit by sharp price gains and growing uncertainty.

Executive signals, strategy

Chevron Corp. chief executive officer Mike Wirth said during a panel discussion that the market may still be underestimating both the scale and the duration of the disruption. He noted that even if tensions ease, restoring production and logistics across the region will take time.

Damage to energy infrastructure, including gas and LNG plants, could keep supplies constrained well beyond the near term. Refined product markets are already tightening, especially for diesel and jet fuel, while Asian buyers remain particularly exposed to supply risk.

“The sudden disruption to energy flows has hit Germany just as it was emerging from recession, damaging the economy and pushing up inflation,” said Katherina Reiche, Germany’s Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy.

To ensure Europe’s energy security, the region must diversify its energy mix and expand domestic production, said Alfred Stern, chief executive officer of OMV AG. Technological innovation will be critical, but it does not need to proceed at an accelerated pace, he added.

On Mar. 23, the opening day of CERAWeek, TotalEnergies SE detailed a $1-billion shift in US investment priorities toward LNG and upstream oil and gas development from spend previously tied to offshore wind.

“Considering that the development of offshore wind projects is not in the country’s interest, we have decided to renounce offshore wind development in the United States, in exchange for the reimbursement of the lease fees,” Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive officer, TotalEnergies.

“Furthermore, these agreements, under which we will reinvest the refunded lease fees to finance the construction of the 29 [million tonnes] Rio Grande LNG plant and the development of our oil and gas activities, allows us to support the development of US gas production and export. These investments will contribute to supplying Europe with much-needed LNG from the US and provide gas for US data center development. We believe this is a more efficient use of capital in the United States,” Pouyanné said.

In 2026, TotalEnergies plans to invest $928 million in two US projects, the development of trains 1-4 of the Rio Grande LNG plant in Texas and the development of upstream conventional oil in the Gulf of Mexico and of shale gas production.