The US won't likely meet some specific biofuel mandates under the current Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) by 2022 unless innovative technologies are developed or policies change, the National Research Council (NRC) said on Oct. 4.
The standard may be ineffective in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, the council suggested in a congressionally requested report. Achieving it would likely increase federal budget outlays and have mixed economic and environmental effects, according to NRC, one of the National Academies providing scientific analysis to federal policymakers.
Congress enacted RFS as part of the 2005 Energy Policy Act and amended it in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The amended standard mandated that by 2022, US renewable fuel consumption volumes should consist of 15 billion gal of conventional fuels, mainly corn-grain ethanol; 1 billion gal of biomass-based diesel fuel; 4 billion gal of advanced renewable biofuels (other than ethanol from corn starch) that achieve at least a 50% life-cycle GHG threshold; and 16 billion gal of cellulosic biofuels from wood, grasses, or nonedible plant parts, according to NRC.
The council said the committee that wrote the report found that production of adequate biofuels is expected to meet conventional biofuels and biomass-based diesel consumption mandates. Meeting the cellulosic biofuels mandate is less certain, it added.
"Currently, no commercially viable biorefineries exist for converting cellulosic biomass to fuel," NRC said. "The capacity to meet the renewable fuel mandate for cellulosic biofuels will not be available unless the production process is unexpectedly improved and technologies are scaled up and undergo several commercial-scale demonstrations in the next few years."
May deter investors
Policy uncertainties and high production costs may deter investors from aggressive deployment, even though the government guarantees a market for cellulosic biofuels up to the consumption mandate's level, regardless of price, the report said.
The high cost of producing cellulosic biofuels compared with petroleum-based fuels and uncertainties are the main uncertainties in future biofuels markets, it concluded. The report recommended carrying out research and development to improve feedstock yield and increasing the conversion yield from biomass to fuels.
Two members of the US House of Representatives proposed legislation on Oct. 5 that would link the amount of corn ethanol to meet RFS to the actual US supply. Reps. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) and Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) said their bill aimed to help lower farmers and ranchers' feed costs by reducing the amount of corn-based ethanol required under RFS when corn supplies are tight.
An estimated 40% of this year's expected corn crop will be used to produce ethanol, compared with 12.5% during 2004-05, the last crop year before RFS was implemented, the congressmen noted.
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About the Author
Nick Snow
NICK SNOW covered oil and gas in Washington for more than 30 years. He worked in several capacities for The Oil Daily and was founding editor of Petroleum Finance Week before joining OGJ as its Washington correspondent in September 2005 and becoming its full-time Washington editor in October 2007. He retired from OGJ in January 2020.