ConocoPhillips chairman Ryan Lance said Oct. 5 that he expects the oil price floor to rise to around $70/bbl and sees a midcycle West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of $65-70/bbl.

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, Lance said US oil production could exceed 14-14.5 million b/d if prices remain around current levels.

WTI was trading near $90/bbl on Oct. 5, well above Lance's midcycle range.

Lance said the global oil system “bent, but didn’t break” during this year’s Middle East conflict, adding that global oil demand could take until 2028 or 2029 to recover from the current crisis, with little to prevent demand from continuing to grow thereafter.

“The real strategic question for companies like mine is where is the conventional production going to come from to satisfy that growing demand,” he said. Lance noted that ConocoPhillips currently is more focused on upstream than midstream investment.

The comments represent a modest upward shift from the company’s recent thinking. On its first-quarter 2026 earnings call in April, ConocoPhillips said it had been using a midcycle WTI price of about $65/bbl and expected the price floor to move higher.

Lance spoke as oil prices remained elevated amid supply and shipping risks tied to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Middle East crude exports have largely recovered, with flows briefly returning to prewar levels during September, but tanker freight rates remain far above prewar levels and security concerns persist around the Strait of Hormuz.

Global inventories also remain low. Saudi Aramco chief executive officer Amin Nasser told the same forum that inventories normally available to cushion markets against supply shocks had become “scarily thin.”

“Until Hormuz fully reopens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify,” said Nasser, “While the squeeze on crude is serious, refined fuel prices have risen even more sharply.”

Aramco, meanwhile, unexpectedly cut its November official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by $3/bbl to a $5/bbl discount to the Oman/Dubai average, its widest discount since June 2020. A Reuters survey had expected an increase of as much as $5/bbl.

Arab Medium and Arab Heavy prices to Asia were each cut by $5/bbl. Asian refining sources said the cuts appeared aimed in part at compensating buyers for record-high freight costs. Aramco raised November prices for northwest Europe by $3/bbl and left prices for US-bound shipments unchanged.