Global LNG trade reached a record 437 million tonnes in 2025, up 6.3% year on year (y-o-y) and marking the fastest growth since 2022, according to the International Gas Union’s (IGU) World LNG Report 2026.

The increase of roughly 25 million tonnes was driven primarily by rising US supply, alongside higher exports from Qatar, Malaysia, Angola, and Nigeria. Canada and the Mauritania–Senegal project also shipped their first LNG cargoes, expanding the pool of exporting countries.

Investment kept pace with market growth. Developers sanctioned 68.4 million tonnes/year (tpy) of new liquefaction capacity in 2025—the highest annual total since 2019—bringing approvals over the 2021–25 period to about 206 million tpy, roughly double the volume sanctioned in the previous 5-year cycle. Much of the new capacity was concentrated in US Gulf Coast projects.

The outlook for 2026, however, is more uncertain. The Middle East conflict has knocked Qatar and the UAE—together about 16% of global liquefaction capacity—off the market for periods this year, and missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan complex are expected to keep roughly 12.8 million tpy of capacity offline for 3-5 years.

Shell PLC's separately published LNG Outlook 2026 is blunter about the near-term picture: Depending on how quickly the Strait of Hormuz reopens, 2026 could see global LNG trade contract year-on-year—something that's never happened before in the past decade of rapid growth Shell has tracked. The Asia Pacific has absorbed most of the supply shock so far, responding through storage draws, fuel switching, demand curtailment and increased spot buying, while a wave of US cargoes has been rerouted from Europe toward Asia to fill the gap.

Despite near-term volatility, both reports highlight a strong long-term trajectory. IGU expects global LNG supply capacity, including existing and under-construction projects, to exceed 700 million tonnes by 2030, a roughly 40% increase from 2025 levels.

Shell similarly projects robust demand growth, forecasting global LNG consumption could rise by about 65% from 2025 levels to nearly 700 million tonnes by 2050, driven largely by economic growth in South and Southeast Asia and declining domestic gas production in key importing regions.

Together, the reports suggest 2026 may serve as a test of market flexibility rather than a turning point, with underlying demand and investment trends continuing to support long-term expansion of the LNG sector.