Persistent oil flow imbalances drive Enverus to increase crude price forecast

Citing impacts from the Iran war, near-zero flows through the Strait of Hormuz, accelerating global stock draws, and expectations for a muted US production response despite higher prices, Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) raised its Brent crude oil price forecast.

EIR now expects Brent to average $95/bbl for the remainder of 2026 and $100/bbl in 2027, reflecting what it described as a persistent global oil flow imbalance that continues to draw down inventories.

“The world has an oil flow problem that is draining stocks,” said Al Salazar, director of research at EIR. “Whenever that oil flow problem is resolved, the world is left with low stocks. That’s what drives our oil price outlook higher for longer.”

The outlook assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed for 3 months. EIR estimates that each month of constrained flows shifts the price outlook by about $10–15/bbl, underscoring the scale of the disruption and uncertainty around its duration.

Despite West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices of $90–100/bbl, EIR does not expect US producers to materially increase output. The firm forecasts US liquids production growth of 370,000 b/d by end-2026 and 580,000 b/d by end-2027, citing drilling-to-production lags, industry consolidation, and continued capital discipline.

Global oil demand growth for 2026 has been reduced to about 500,000 b/d from 1.0 million b/d as higher energy prices and anticipated supply disruptions weigh on economic activity.

Cumulative global oil stock draws are estimated at roughly 1 billion bbl through 2027, with non-OECD inventories—particularly in Asia—absorbing nearly half of the impact.

A 60-day Jones Act waiver may provide limited short-term US shipping flexibility, but EIR said the measure is unlikely to materially affect global oil prices given broader market forces.