OPEC+ holds firm on output strategy amid market uncertainty

Eight OPEC+ producers that previously announced additional voluntary supply adjustments met virtually on Jan. 4, 2026, to review global oil market conditions and the outlook. The group—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—reaffirmed its Nov. 2, 2025, decision to pause planned production increases in February and March 2026, citing seasonal demand patterns.

The eight countries reiterated that the combined 1.65 million b/d of voluntary production cuts could be returned to the market either partially or in full, depending on evolving market conditions, and in a gradual manner. They emphasized that a cautious approach and flexibility remain central to their strategy, including the option to pause or reverse the additional production adjustments, including the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million b/d announced in November 2023. 

The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024. 

The eight OPEC+ countries said they will continue holding monthly meetings to assess market conditions, conformity, and compensation mechanisms. The next meeting is scheduled for Feb. 1, 2026.

Venezuela is a member of OPEC+. Major oil producers signaled a cautious outlook following US strikes on Venezuela, saying the group does not plan to make any significant changes to current production levels.

In a research note, Morningstar indicates that a significant recovery in Venezuelan crude oil production over the medium term, coupled with the Venezuelan government's focus on boosting production and trade with the US, could weaken OPEC+'s current influence over global supply.