OPEC forecasts rising non-OPEC oil supply, especially US oil production

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its expectation for oil supply growth from US shale and other non-OPEC producers, the cartel’s Monthly Oil Market Report said. In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.6 million b/d to average 98.63 million b/d, marginally higher than the assessment that OPEC made a month ago.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its expectation for oil supply growth from US shale and other non-OPEC producers, the cartel’s Monthly Oil Market Report said.

In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.6 million b/d to average 98.63 million b/d, marginally higher than the assessment that OPEC made a month ago.

Total non-OPEC supply was revised upward to 59.53 million b/d, representing a year-on-year oil supply growth of 1.66 million b/d. Of that total growth, US liquids production is expected to account for 1.46 million b/d.

OPEC’s forecast of non-OPEC supply growth for 2018 fell short of a recent forecast from the International Energy Agency, which expects 1.8 million b/d.

Regarding OPEC supply, secondary sources estimate the cartel produced a rounded 32.19 million b/d in February, a decrease of 77,000 b/d from January. The February OPEC production was its lowest since April 2017.

Production declines in Venezuela, the UAE, and Iraq were partially offset by higher production in Nigeria and Angola.

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