OPEC crude oil production is expected to rise by 400,000 b/d in 2015 and fall by 200,000 b/d in 2016. Forecast OPEC crude oil production was revised upward from last month’s STEO by 300,000 b/d in 2015 and by 200,000 b/d in 2016, with Iraq being the largest contributor to OPEC production growth over the next 2 years.
Prices
North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $60/bbl in April, a $4/bbl increase from March and the highest monthly average of 2015.
“Despite increasing global inventories, several factors contributed to higher prices in April, including indications of higher global oil demand growth, expectations for declining US tight oil production in the coming months, and the growing risk of unplanned supply outages in the Middle East and North Africa,” EIA said.
EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $61/bbl in 2015 and $70/bbl in 2016, $1/bbl higher and $5/bbl lower than in last month’s STEO, respectively. Average WTI prices in 2015 and 2016 are expected to be $6/bbl and $5/bbl below Brent, respectively.
US crude oil production
Total US crude oil production averaged an estimated 9.3 million b/d in March, but it is expected to decline from June through September before growth resumes. Projected total crude oil production averages 9.2 million b/d in both 2015 and 2016, 40,000 b/d and 100,000 b/d lower than in last month’s STEO, respectively.