WoodMac: “plenty of running room” in shallow-water Niger Delta

Regarding TotalEnergies SE’s discovery at Ntokon in the shallow-water Niger Delta (OGJ Online, June 13, 2023), Gail Anderson, Wood Mackenzie's director of upstream research, stated, "Ntokon is likely to be Nigeria's biggest shallow water discovery in a decade. Despite the lack of exploration in recent times, this discovery shows that there is still plenty of running room in the shallow-water Niger Delta."

Drawing parallels with similar net pay in shallow-water discoveries in the Niger Delta's Tertiary Agbada formation, and accounting for above-average recovery from high-quality reservoirs, Wood Mackenzie estimates the field could hold resources in the range of 300-400 MMboe.

The discovery was made in shallow-water block OML 102, part of a joint venture between operator TotalEnergies (40%) and NNPC Ltd. (60%). Ntokon will be developed by integrating it with the Ofon field, 20 km to the northeast, within the same block.

“Assuming 320 MMboe of reserves, a wellhead platform development of 60-70 m water depth with up to 30 wells and a multi-phase pipeline to Ofon could achieve first oil in 2029. This would generate a healthy internal rate of return of 24%, based on the current concession terms, with the understanding that the JV will not convert to the Petroleum Industry Act fiscal terms,” said Anderson.

Wood Mackenzie analysis notes that filling the Ofon facilities and the oil terminal will significantly cut emissions intensity, while a ready-made gas export route will make Ntokon a zero-flare development.

“This demonstrates the advantages of shorter-cycle tie backs over more expensive stand-alone developments for both cost savings and lower emissions,” said Anderson. “However, there are challenges. Nigeria is not known for short lead-times, particularly where JV projects are concerned. Ntokon will provide a test in the face of stiff global competition to see if all interested parties could quickly progress lower-cost, lower-carbon projects and allow Nigeria to kick-start desperately needed investment and recover its declining production.”