EIA: Increased air travel beginning to raise US jet fuel consumption

The number of air travel passengers has increased in the US in recent weeks, which may indicate a corresponding near-term increase in jet fuel demand, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

Jet fuel demand has been at historic lows since April 2020. According to the report, the 4-week average consumption of jet fuel from Apr. 9, 2021, through the most recent data (as of Apr. 23, 2021) was more than 1.2 million b/d. This level of consumption was nearly 200,000 b/d higher than the 4-week average that ended Mar. 26, 2021. EIA uses product supplied as a proxy for jet fuel consumption.

US jet fuel consumption decreased in 2020 because of global travel limitations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in significantly less air travel demand in 2020 compared with the shorter and smaller decrease following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. In March 2021, the number of passengers processed by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA) averaged 1.2 million/day, the most in any month since the onset of the pandemic in spring 2020. In April 2020, air travel substantially declined in the US, and TSA passenger numbers fell to 100,000 passengers/day. By April 2021, TSA passenger numbers had increased to an average of 1.4 million/day (as of Apr. 26).

TSA tracks and publishes the number of passengers that move through TSA airport checkpoints daily. In February 2020, before responses to the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in substantial reductions in air travel, TSA processed an average of 2.2 million air passengers/day. TSA passenger numbers increased gradually but remained below 900,000 passengers/day on a monthly average basis until March 2021.