US LNG exports will exceed natural gas exports by pipeline in the first and fourth quarters of 2021 and on an annual basis in 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) February 2021 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA forecasts that monthly US LNG exports exceeded natural gas exports by pipeline by nearly 1.2 bcfd in November 2020. LNG exports have only exceeded natural gas exports by pipeline once since 1998—in April 2020—by 0.01 bcfd.
US LNG exports set consecutive monthly records of 9.4 bcfd in November and of 9.8 bcfd in both December 2020 and January 2021, according to EIA’s estimates based on the shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance LP. EIA forecasts that US LNG gross exports will average 9.7 bcfd in February 2021 before declining to seasonal lows in the shoulder months of the spring and fall seasons. EIA forecasts LNG exports to average 8.5 bcfd in 2021 and 9.2 bcfd in 2022, compared with average gross pipeline exports of 8.8 bcfd in 2021 and 8.9 bcfd in 2022.
Since November 2020, all six US LNG export facilities have been operating near full design capacity. In December, Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi LNG plant in Texas commissioned its 5-million tonne/year third and final liquefaction train 6 months ahead of schedule, bringing total US liquefaction capacity to 9.5 bcfd baseload (10.8 bcfd peak) across six plants.
The November–January increase in US LNG exports has been driven by rising international natural gas and LNG prices, particularly in Asia, and lower global LNG supply because of unplanned outages at several LNG export sites worldwide.
US pipeline exports to Mexico increased by 6.4% in the first 11 months of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019 as a result of the completion of a new segment of the Wahalajara pipeline system (OGJ Online, July 6, 2020) and Centro de Control del Gas Natural’s (Cenagas) Cempoala compressor station. The completion of Grupo Carso’s Samalayuca-Sásabe pipeline (470 MMcfd) in January 2021 and the expected completion of TC Energy’s Tula-Villa de Reyes pipeline (886 MMcfd) later in 2021 are expected to further increase US pipeline exports to Mexico.
