Shell delivers strong first-quarter 2025 results, launches $3.5 billion share buyback
Shell plc's first-quarter 2025 earnings exceeded market expecations, and the operator is citing strong performance across its businesses, disciplined capital spending, and continued portfolio optimization, as part of its earnings report released May 2.
The energy major posted adjusted earnings of $5.6 billion for the quarter. Earnings were lower year-over-year as first-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings were $7.7 billion (OGJ Online, May 2, 2024). Adjusted earnings per share for this year's first quarter reached $1.84, above analyst estimates of $1.58 (TD Cowen) and $1.62 (consensus).
Cash flow from operations (CFFO) excluding working capital totaled $11.9 billion, while free cash flow came in at $5.3 billion, supported by lower-than-forecast capital expenditures. First-quarter 2025 capex totaled $4.2 billion. Full-year capital guidance was reaffirmed at $20–22 billion.
Shell will implement a $3.5-billion share buyback program over the next 3 months—marking the company’s 14th consecutive quarter of buybacks above $3 billion, exceeding analyst expectations.
“Shell delivered another solid set of results in the first quarter of 2025,” said chief executive officer Wael Sawan.
“We further strengthened our leading LNG business by completing the acquisition of Pavilion Energy and high-graded our portfolio with the completion of the Nigeria onshore and the Singapore Energy and Chemicals Park divestments. Our strong performance and resilient balance sheet give us the confidence to commence another $3.5 billion of buybacks for the next 3 months, consistent with the strategic direction we set out at our Capital Markets Day in March.”
Operational highlights
Adjusted earnings for Integrated Gas were $2.5 billion, up from $2.2 billion in fourth-quarter 2024, reflecting lower exploration well write-offs. Trading and optimization results were in line with fourth-quarter 2024, despite higher unfavorable (non-cash) impact from expiring hedging contracts. Second-quarter 2025 production and liquefaction outlook reflects higher scheduled maintenance across the portfolio.
Upstream delivered $2.3 billion in adjusted earnings, up from 1.7 billion in fourth-quarter 2024, aided by lower depreciation following year-end reserves updates and lower well write-offs, partially offset by lower sales volumes. Second-quarter 2025 production is expected to decline due to maintenance and the completed sale of the Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Ltd. (SPDC) in March 2025.
Marketing contributed $0.9 billion in adjusted earnings, benefiting from seasonally higher lubricant margins.
Chemicals & Products reported $0.4 billion in adjusted earnings, compared with a loss of $0.2 billion in fourth-quarter 2024. Trading and optimization results were significantly higher than in fourth-quarter 2024 and in line with contributions in second-quarter and third-quarter of 2024, while the Chemicals results continued to be impacted by a weak margin environment. Second-quarter 2025 outlook reflects the completed sale of the Energy and Chemicals Park in Singapore.
Renewables & Energy Solutions posted a smaller loss of $42 million in first-quarter 2025 than in fourth-quarter 2024, with higher seasonal demand and volatility driving higher trading and optimization, particularly in the Americas.
Looking ahead
Shell guided to slightly lower upstream production levels in second-quarter 2025. Integrated Gas output is expected to remain stable, while refining utilization is expected to increase. Investors are also watching for updates on the LNG Canada project, the near-term impact of Pavilion Energy, and strategic direction for Shell’s Chemicals business post-divestment.
