ExxonMobil energy outlook shows rising global demand

ExxonMobil just issued the latest edition of its energy outlook, and when the largest publicly traded international oil and gas company talks, people listen. The report is called "Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030" and the 56-page document is available for viewing on the company's website.

The company's researchers forecast that global energy demand will be about 35% higher in 2030 than in 2005; natural gas will be the fastest-growing major energy source, overtaking coal as the second-largest global energy source behind oil; and that global energy demand growth will be far higher unless projected efficiency improvements are met.

The growing use of natural gas and other less-carbon intensive energy supplies, combined with greater energy efficiency in nations around the world, will help mitigate environmental impacts of increased energy demand. According to the report, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions growth will be lower than the projected average rate of growth in energy demand.

"Our energy outlook clearly points to a growing demand for energy globally which reflects improving living standards for millions of people around the world," said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and CEO.

"The forecasts also show a shift toward natural gas as businesses and governments look for reliable, affordable and cleaner ways to meet energy needs," Tillerson added. "Newly unlocked supplies of shale gas and other unconventional energy sources will be vital in meeting this demand."

The energy outlook report is developed annually to help guide ExxonMobil's global investment decisions. The company shares the findings publicly to increase understanding of the world's energy needs and challenges. The outlook is the result of a detailed analysis of approximately 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 fuel types and is underpinned by economic and population projections and expectations of significant energy efficiency improvements and technology advancements.

Rising electricity demand – and the choice of fuels used to generate that electricity – represent a key focus area, which will have a major impact on the global energy landscape over the next two decades. According to the outlook, global electricity demand will rise by more than 80% through 2030 from 2005 levels. In the non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries alone demand will soar by more than 150% as economic and social development improve and more people gain access to electricity.

According to the report, efforts to ensure reliable, affordable energy while also limiting greenhouse gas emissions will lead to polices in many countries that put a cost on carbon dioxide emissions. As a result, abundant supplies of natural gas will become increasingly competitive as an economic source of electric power as its use results in up to 60% fewer CO2 emissions than coal in generating electricity. Demand for natural gas for power generation is expected to rise by about 85% from 2005 to 2030 when natural gas will provide more than a quarter of the world's electricity needs. Natural gas demand is rising in every region of the world but growth is strongest in non-OECD countries, particularly China where demand in 2030 will be approximately six times what it was in 2005.

Among this year's findings:

• Rapid economic growth and expanding prosperity in developing countries that are not part of the OECD will drive an increase in their energy demand of more than 70% in 2030 compared to 2005. By contrast, improvements in energy efficiency will help keep energy demand in OECD countries essentially flat over the period to 2030, even though the total economic output of these nations is expected to rise by approximately 60%.
• Efficiency gains are expected to accelerate between 2005 and 2030 versus historical trends. Gains in the wise and efficient use of energy across all sectors of economies worldwide will curb energy demand growth through 2030 by about 65%.
• There will be an expansion of natural gas supply, particularly in the US where unconventional gas supplies are expected to meet more than 50% of gas demand by 2030.
• Power generation is the largest and fastest growing major energy-demand sector and is likely to represent 55% of the total growth in demand through 2030. At that time, power generation will account for about 40% of total primary energy demand.
• Oil, natural gas and coal will continue to meet most of the world's needs during this period because no other energy sources can match their availability, versatility, affordability and scale. The fastest-growing of these fuels will be natural gas, reflecting its abundance, versatility and economic advantages as an efficient, clean-burning fuel for power generation.

Wind, solar, and biofuels will grow sharply through 2030, at nearly 10% per year on average. However, because they are starting from a small base, their contribution by 2030 is likely to remain relatively small at about 2.5% of total energy.

Petrobras announced January 25 that it has made a new discovery of "good quality" oil in the pre-salt reservoirs of block BM-S-9, in ultra deep waters of Santos Basin.

The discovery was a result of the drilling of well 3-BRSA-861-SPS (3-SPS-74), informally known as Carioca Nordeste, located in a water depth of 2,151m and 275 km off the coast of the state of São Paulo in the evaluation area of Carioca well - 1-BRSA-491-SPS (1-SPS-50).

Preliminary analyses confirm the extent of the accumulation with oil of 26º API in 250 meters of good quality reservoir, better than the result of the wildcat well.

Block BM-S-9 has two evaluation areas: well 1-BRSA-594-SPS (1-SPS-55), informally known as Guará and the area of well 1-BRSA-491-SPS (1-SPS-50), informally known as Carioca, where the discovery well is located.

Petrobras holds a 45% stake in this concession, and is the operator of the consortium comprised of BG Group with 30% and Repsol with 25%.

The Consortium will give continuity to the investments provided in the Discovery Evaluation Plan, presented to the ANP in 2007, to confirm the dimensions and characteristics of the reservoir, seeking the development of the project and the activities in the Santos Basin pre-salt.

Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) confirmed discoveries within the Moho-Bilondo license in the Republic of the Congo.

The Bilondo Marine 2 and 3 wells are located approximately 40 miles (70 kilometers) offshore of the Republic of the Congo, in 2,600 feet (800 meters) of water in the central part of the Moho-Bilondo license.

Bilondo Marine 2 and 3 were drilled to a total depth of around 6,000 feet (1,800 m). The Bilondo Marine 2 (BILDM-2) well found 253 feet (77 m) of gross reservoir, while the Bilondo Marine 3 (BILDM-3) well, which had a different reservoir as objective, found 144 feet (44 m) of gross reservoir. Both wells were successfully tested and flowed oil.

"We look forward to continuing the work needed to further evaluate these discoveries and potential development options," said Ali Moshiri, president of Chevron Africa and Latin America Exploration and Production Company.

The discoveries follow two previous successful exploration wells, Moho Nord Marine-1 and 2, drilled in the permit area in 2007 and the positive appraisal wells Moho Nord Marine-3 in 2008 and Moho Nord Marine-4 in 2009.

The permit area's deepwater Moho-Bilondo project began production in April 2008 and is currently producing 90,000 barrels of crude oil a day. Chevron's subsidiary holds a 31.5% interest in the permit area with partners Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (15%) and Total E&P Congo (operator and 53.5%).

BP today announced that it has been awarded four deepwater offshore blocks in the Ceduna Sub Basin within the Great Australian Bight, off the coast of South Australia.

BP said that it will explore Exploration Permit for Petroleum (EPP) areas EPP 37, EPP 38, EPP 39 and EPP 40 covering an area of 24,000 km2 for oil and gas reserves, with the right to develop any commercially viable discoveries.

"This is a material and early move into an unexplored deepwater basin," said Mike Daly, Executive Vice President of Exploration for BP.

"The Ceduna Sub Basin is a very exciting new exploration area for BP. Our experience tells us that the geology has a high potential for containing hydrocarbons," added Dr. Phil Home, managing director of BP's Australian upstream oil and gas business.

BP said that the proposed exploration activity would be phased over six years and, as part of the regulatory approval process, would be subject to detailed environmental assessment.

BP Australia is an energy company involved in a wide range of activities, such as exploring for and producing natural gas and crude oil resources, refining and marketing petroleum products, producing lubricants, and generating electricity from solar panels.

BP is a joint venture participant in the North West Shelf Project and also owns assets which are being developed in the Gorgon LNG Project and the Browse LNG Projects. Its downstream business is centered on refineries near Brisbane and Perth and has a network of almost 1,400 service stations throughout Australia.

Seismic survey activity could take place in the summer of 2011/12. Drilling activity is not expected to take place until 2013 or 2014. BP is committed to use the intervening time to fully implement the lessons learned from the investigations into the Montara and Deepwater Horizon incidents, and is working closely with the Australian Government, the South Australian Government and industry to do so.

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