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Some analysts see oil markets sailing into calm waters in the fourth quarter, discounting what might happen with wild cards Iraq and the U.S.S.R. Merrill Lynch expects the oil supply/demand balance will be comfortable heading into winter, backing off its earlier concerns of tight supplies. It puts the call on OPEC oil at closer to 23 million b/d in the fourth quarter vs. its earlier forecast of about 24 million b/d, citing persistently high stocks.

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