OIL PRICE VOLATILITY POSSIBLE THROUGH 1992, DEPENDING ON GULF SCENARIOS

The world oil market in late 1991 and early 1992 may follow the same volatile path it did during the Persian Gulf crisis. Oil prices could jump sharply in second half 1991 because of increased demand and lost crude exports stemming from United Nations trade sanctions. That was the case in second half 1990 when a U.S. led United Nations trade embargo blocked Iraqi and Kuwaiti exports after lraq's blitz of Kuwait, removing about 4.5 million b/d from the market as oil demand was still