CIVIL WAR TO REDUCE ANGOLA'S OIL OUTPUT; REBOUND DUE IN 1994

The civil war in Angola is expected to trim the country's oil production for 1993 to an average 521,500 b/d, down 6% from 1992. Angolan production will rebound next year and reach a new high of 715,960 b/d in 1996, says Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd., Edinburgh. The resurgence will be driven by a recovery in exploration and appraisal drilling this year, which is likely to be maintained for 5 years.

Nov. 15, 1993

3 min read

The civil war in Angola is expected to trim the country's oil production for 1993 to an average 521,500 b/d, down 6% from 1992.

Angolan production will rebound next year and reach a new high of 715,960 b/d in 1996, says Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd., Edinburgh.

The resurgence will be driven by a recovery in exploration and appraisal drilling this year, which is likely to be maintained for 5 years.

Wood Mackenzie expects the Cabinda enclave to produce an average 303,500 b/d this year, or 58% of Angola's total. Production off mainland Angola will total 216,400 b/d, with onshore production contributing an average 1,600 b/d.

Production from Block 2 off mainland Angola was shut down twice by fighting. From Jan. 18 to Feb. 8 Unita forces occupied the Soyo supply base and Quinfuquena terminal. This forced producers to change crude export routes.

From May 31 to July 15 some Block 2 production facilities were shut down as then, came under fire from land-based Unita rebels.

Before the closures, crude oil was piped ashore from Block 2 fields to the terminal and back out again to an offshore loading point.

PRODUCTION FORECAST

Now, the Quinfuquena terminal is bypassed and oil is exported from the original loading buoy adjacent to Essungo field and a new buoy near East Lombo field. Nevertheless, Block 2 production for 1993 is forecast to be down 21% from 1992.

Al] Block 2 fields are now producing normally, said Wood Mackenzie, apart from Essungo and Raia which remain vulnerable to land-based attack. Block 1 Safueiro field is shut in as production is exported via Essungo field.

Onshore oil production has been severely curtailed, with most fields shut down since late 1992. Only the small Kwanza basin fields are producing, the analyst said. This year's onshore production will be only 1/20th of the 1992 total.

Assuming onshore fields are reopened in mid-1994 and that Block 2 fields produce normally, Wood Mackenzie predicted total Angolan oil production will average 564,500 b/d in 1994.

Peak flow in 1996 is expected to include 598,000 b/d from fields currently in production or under development and 117,900 b/d from future developments.

Angolan production to date is estimated at 2.26 billion bbl of oil, with remaining reserves of 2.80 billion bbl. Fields under development are said to hold 206 million bbl of oil, with future developments 870 million bbl.

EXPLORATION

Ten exploration license awards have been made since the start of 1991, involving 39,000 sq km of acreage. These require 45 commitment wells by 1997.

Wood Mackenzie predicted four new licenses will be awarded next year: deepwater Blocks 14 and 15 to Chevron Corp. and Exxon Corp., respectively, offshore Block 9 to Texaco Inc., and the onshore South Cabinda block to Petrofina SA.

Twenty-four exploration and appraisal wells are forecast to be completed this year, compared with 10 exploration wells and six appraisal wells in 1992. Drilling levels are expected to remain at about 24 wells/year until 1997.

During the last 5 years, 53% of wells are said to have found hydrocarbons. This compared favorably with other regions, for example, the U.K. with a 30% success rate.

The Angolan success rate is predicted to decline in the next 5 years because of the large number of frontier wells planned. Satellite accumulations off Cabinda and in Blocks 2 and 3 are thought likely to buoy the figures.