Latin America returns to the energy security conversation at CERAWeek

With geopolitical risk central to conversations about energy, and with long-cycle supply once again in focus, Latin America’s mix of hydrocarbons and export potential drew renewed attention at CERAWeek buy S&P Global in Houston.

Argentina, resource story to export platform

Among the regional stories, Argentina stood out as Vaca Muerta was no longer discussed simply as a large unconventional resource, but whether the country could turn resource quality into sustained export capacity. 

Country officials talked about scale: more operators, more services, more infrastructure, and a larger industrial base around the unconventional play.

Daniel González, Vice Minister of Energy and Mining for Argentina, put it plainly: “The time has come to expand the Vaca Muerta ecosystem.” What is at stake now is not whether the basin works, but whether the country can build enough above-ground capacity and regulatory consistency to keep development moving.

Horacio Marín, chairman and chief executive officer of YPF, offered an expansive version of that argument. He said Argentina’s energy exports could reach $50 billion/year by 2031, backed by roughly $130 billion in cumulative investment in oil, LNG, and transportation infrastructure. He said Argentine crude output could reach 1 million b/d by end-2026. He said Argentina wants to be seen less as a recurrent frontier story and more as a future supplier with scale. “The time to invest in Vaca Muerta is now,” Marín said.

The LNG piece is starting to take shape. Eni, YPF, and XRG signed a joint development agreement in February to move Argentina LNG forward, with a first phase planned at 12 million tonnes/year. Southern Energy—backed by PAE, YPF, Pampa Energía, Harbour Energy, and Golar LNG—holds a long-term agreement with SEFE for 2 million tonnes/year over 8 years. The movement by global standards is early-stage and relatively modest, but it adds to Argentina’s export case.

Ricardo Markous, chief executive officer of Tecpetrol, brought the discussion to fundamentals. Vaca Muerta “is more natural gas than oil,” he said. Argentina is exporting to Chile, “but we need to build infrastructure to export more to Brazil.” The region’s next energy chapter will not be written only in oil volumes, he said. It will also depend on gas flows, LNG buildout, and how Argentina fits into Brazil’s demand outlook as Bolivia’s contribution continues to fade.

Paolo Rocca, chairman and chief executive officer of Grupo Techint, seconded the Argentine opportunity. “We need to expand our capacity to ensure a solid supply chain,” he said, referring to a world shaped by geopolitical fragmentation and supply insecurity. Rocca said the group sees long-term opportunities “particularly in oil and energy production in Argentina.” Days later, Tecpetrol filed under Argentina’s Incentive Regime for Large Investments a $2.4-billion project for Los Toldos II Este, targeting shale oil output of about 70,000 b/d.

Argentina’s case also drew support from international executives.

“The geology is excellent. Argentina’s historical problem has been above ground: the investment environment,” said Mike Wirth, chairman and chief executive officer of Chevron. He said those obstacles are now being addressed “systematically” and that Chevron is seeing “real progress.”

Doug Lawler, chairman and chief executive officer of Continental Resources, made a similar point. In 5-10 years, “US production will stabilize or decline, and that gap will be filled by Vaca Muerta,” Lawler said, pointing to the “great effort being made to improve the investment climate. 

Venezuela as high-risk reopening story

Nobel Laureate and Venezuela politician María Corina Machado made a direct pitch at CERAWeek for international capital, calling for legal certainty, transparency, arbitration protections, and a far more open oil-and-gas framework. “I am here to bring attention to Venezuela, not to delay it,” she said. She said Venezuela could eventually reach 5 million b/d with investment of about $150 billion.

The industry response was more restrained. While the resource base exists, at issue is whether political change can translate into durable fiscal and institutional terms that can carry long-cycle capital.

Guyana, Brazil 

Guyana appears as the region’s most mature growth case. Vickram Bharrat, Minister of Natural Resources, Guyana, said output—which already exceeds 900,000 b/d—could continue to rise.

Bharrat indicated the country may extend its crude marketing agreement with BB Energy after securing a premium over market prices on the state’s share of production. That is a sign of where Guyana now sits: not just a discovery success, but a producer working to manage commercialization more deliberately as volumes grow.

Brazil, meanwhile, remains the region’s offshore anchor. Petrobras’s chief exploration and production officer Sylvia Anjos reinforced a familiar message about technical capability, supply relevance, and continuity.