IEA again trims global oil demand forecast

The International Energy Agency, Paris, has again trimmed its global oil demand forecast.

By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Oct 10 -- The International Energy Agency, Paris, has again trimmed its global oil demand forecast.

In its monthly oil market report for October, IEA cut its outlook for oil demand in 2008 by 240,000 b/d, and reduced the 2009 outlook by 440,000 b/d.

The new projections come as a result of weaker-than-expected oil deliveries to member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development during July and August and in light of the International Monetary Fund's downward revisions to 2009 global gross domestic product assumptions, which foresee no US economic growth in 2009.

IEA now expects world oil demand to average 86.5 million b/d in 2008, up 400,000 b/d from last year, and 87.2 million b/d in 2009.

Oil demand in the OECD will average 48.1 million b/d in 2008, down 2.2% vs. 2007, and 47.5 million b/d in 2009. Revisions to both North America and Pacific data were significant, IEA said, as rapidly weakening economic conditions, financial turmoil, and high prices should have a marked impact upon OECD demand, most notably in the US.

Meanwhile, oil demand outside the OECD is forecast to average 38.4 million b/d in 2008, up 4.2% from a year earlier, and 39.7 million b/d in 2009, or 40,000 b/d higher than projected in IEA's previous monthly report.

This minor upward revision is related to stronger-than-expected demand in almost all non-OECD regions. Overall, non-OECD demand growth should continue to offset the severe OECD demand contraction, IEA said.

Oil demand is forecast to post moderate growth next year in the former Soviet Union, China, Latin America, and the Middle East. IEA expects oil demand in other non-OECD Asian countries and Africa to increase as well during 2009.

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