Doris Leblond
OGJ Correspondent
PARIS, Nov. 7 -- Amid the world's current high oil price environment, the oil and natural gas industry will need to focus on the "critical" role that will be played by the producing regions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in order to meet global energy demand to 2030, according to the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2005, released Nov. 7.
With its vast oil and gas reserves and low production-to-reserves ratios, the MENA region has the potential to provide much of the world's growing energy needs in the coming decade, including its own soaring domestic demands, IEA stated.
IEA's extensive country-by-country analysis—which included Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—detailed the internal demand, resources, policies, investment, production, exports, and energy use for desalination. The review tries to answer the question of how much oil and gas MENA countries can be reasonably expected to export to the rest of the world during the next 25 years.
Three scenarios are developed for the purpose. In the first, reference scenario (described as "unsustainable"), current policies remain in place and world energy demand rises 50% with crude prices reaching $39/bbl by 2030 (in 2004 dollars). However in the shorter term, by 2010, the IEA sees prices easing to about $35/bbl as new crude production and refining capacity come on stream.
In the second, deferred investment scenario, crude prices increase to $52/bbl.
The third, world alternative policy scenario depicts a more efficient and environmentally friendly future. IEA believes hopefully that "sustained high energy prices are already driving policies towards this scenario."
