The United States exported 89,000 b/d in crude oil and petroleum products in September 2019, marking the first time since the US Energy Information Administration began keeping monthly data records in 1973 that the US exported more than it imported.
Currently, the US exports more petroleum products than it imports but imports more crude oil than it exports. Crude imports for the 4-week average ending Nov. 29 were 5.975 million b/d, down 21.3% over same period last year, while exports were 3.069 million b/d, up 27% over last year. For the same 4-week average ending Nov. 29, petroleum products exported were 5.240 million b/d, down 3.5% over last year. Imports were 2.379 million b/d, up 35.4% over last year.
Over the last 10 years, the US petroleum balance of trade activity has been shifting. In 2009, net petroleum imports were 9.6 million b/d versus annual net imports of 2.3 million b/d in 2018.
Growth of crude oil production
The rise in US crude oil production since 2009 has caused the decrease in crude oil imports. US crude oil production has risen from an average of 5.3 million b/d in 2009 to an annual average of 10.99 million b/d in 2018. In 2019, crude oil production has steadily risen to 12.5 million b/d in September. Imports of crude oil have dropped from an average of 9.0 million b/d in 2009 to 7.0 million through September.
Since the ban on exporting domestically produced crude oil was repealed in December 2015, US crude oil exports have risen to an average 2.048 million b/d in 2018 from an average of 591,000 b/d in 2016. Crude oil exports continue to rise, with a peak in June of 3.2 million b/d. After declining slightly, the number reached 3.1 million b/d in September. Exports cumulative daily average through Nov. 29 is 2.919 million b/d, a 51.4% increase over the same period last year.
Though the export numbers have risen, the US is still a net importer of crude oil. It primarily imports crude oil for the refineries that are configured to process the heavier, high-sulfur content crude oil. Imports of crude oil are primarily from Canada and Mexico.
Refinery inputs, outputs
With the higher demand for petroleum products, principally distillate fuel oil, motor gasoline, and jet fuel, refiners have ramped up output. “Gross inputs into US refineries rose from an annual average of 14.6 million b/d in 2009, to 17.0 million b/d through the third quarter 2019, and they have regularly set new monthly record highs,” EIA reported. With the increase in gross inputs, the refinery production of petroleum products has outperformed the rise in US petroleum product consumption, therefore seeing the increase in petroleum product exports.
“The United States has gone from net petroleum product imports of 698,000 b/d in 2009 to net petroleum product exports of 3.2 million b/d so far in 2019. In the first 9 months of 2019, the United States exported 1.4 million b/d of distillate, 1.1 million b/d of propane, and 864,000 b/d of motor gasoline, the three largest petroleum product exports,” EIA said.
Bouncing from net imports and net exports will continue due to seasonal monthly import and export patterns. Several petroleum products have sustained as an annual net exporter. “The US has been an annual net exporter of distillate and residual fuel since 2008, a net exporter of hydrocarbon gas liquids and jet fuel since 2011, and a net exporter of motor gasoline since 2016,” EIA said.
The US changeover to a net petroleum exporter in September was forecasted by EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). In the November STEO, EIA predicts that US net petroleum exports will average 751,000 b/d in 2020, establishing the US as a net petroleum exporter on an annual basis for the first time.
Laura Bell-Hammer | Statistics Editor
Laura Bell-Hammer has been the Statistics Editor for the Oil & Gas Journal since 1994. She was the Survey Editor for two years prior to her current position with OGJ. While working with OGJ, she also was a contributing editor for Oil & Gas Financial Journal. Before joining OGJ, she worked for Vintage Petroleum in Tulsa, gaining her oil and gas industry knowledge.