Of two threats to exploration and production in the Eastern Mediterranean this year, new Turkish menacing of activity off Cyprus has the greater chance of occurring.
“The Turkish navy is more likely than not to harass drilling ships looking to explore in disputed waters [off Cyprus] if left undeterred,” says Anthony Skinner, politics director, MENA, at Verisk Maplecroft.
The other threat, an attack by Hezbollah in Lebanon against production equipment off Israel, has less chance of materializing.
“Though ideologically bent on the destruction of Israel, Hezbollah is very unlikely to have an incentive in 2019 to spark what would without doubt be a devastating conflict for both Lebanon and Israel,” Skinner says in a research note.
The Turkish government disputes Cypriot territorial claims and says oil and gas development shouldn’t occur until Turks in Northern Cyprus are ensured a share of production revenue.
Last February, Turkish warships prevented a Saipem drillship under contract to Eni from moving from the Calypso discovery on Block 6 southwest of the island nation to a prospect on Block 3 off the east coast.
Ankara “got off lightly” for that incident, Skinner says, and has an incentive to continue resisting activity off Cyprus in its effort to force Greek Cyprus to share wealth from resource development. And it now has drilling of its own to protect in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Hezbollah published its threat against Israeli offshore infrastructure the same month Turkey stymied Eni off Cyprus.
While gaining political clout in Lebanon, it hasn’t reached maximum military strength, Skinner says.
With Iranian help, Hezbollah has built a stockpile of about 150,000 rockets. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu estimates the group has no more than “a few dozen” precision missiles.
Hezbollah thus might be unable to disrupt Israel’s offshore gas fields.
Skinner thinks new discoveries off Israel would not raise prospects for disruption there.
Off Cyprus, however, a new discovery would harden Turkey’s determination to secure wealth for Turkish Cypriots and defend its territorial claims.
(From the subscription area of www.ogj.com, posted Feb. 1, 2019. To comment, join the Commentary channel at www.ogj.com/oilandgascommunity.)