Oil production has proven to be more robust than military defense in Saudi Arabia.
While the production recovery from Sept. 14 attacks at Abqaiq and Khurais has been swift, security improvement will take years, says Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal MENA analyst, Verisk Maplecroft.
Saudi Arabia, Soltvedt writes in an Oct. 4 research note, is vulnerable to missile and drone attacks from the north, south, and east.
“With key energy infrastructure on Saudi Arabia’s east coast less than 200 km from Iran, 350 km from Iraq, and 1,200 km from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen,” he says, “a wide array of missiles and drones are within striking distance.”
Houthi rebels supported by Iran launch missile, artillery, drone, and rocket attacks almost daily.
Targets are mostly in the southwestern governates of Asir, Jizan, and Najran, far from major oil production.
Over the last 2 years, however, the sophistication and reach of Houthi weaponry have improved. Soltvedt cites the militants’ acquisition of the UAV-X drone, which can carry explosive warheads 1,500 km.
“Houthi rebels are far better equipped now than before the Saudi-led intervention in March 2015,” he says.
Saudi Arabia faces a different threat from the north.
It is not in direct conflict with any of the Shia militias Iran backs in Iraq. And how many aerial strikes against the kingdom originated in Iraq, if any, is unclear.
Also, Iran is closer to the militias in Iraq than it is to the Houthis. Supplying weapons and training is easier.
According to Soltvedt, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “has made little attempt to conceal what has been a gradual build-up of missile capabilities in Iraq over the last 2 years.”
Meanwhile, the US shows neither interest in leading a military response against Iran nor willingness to ease its pressure against the Islamic Republic.
“Saudi Arabia is left in a limbo,” Soltvedt says. “In what is an increasingly complex regional security environment, that is an uncomfortable situation for both Saudi Arabia and oil markets.”
(From the subscription area of www.ogj.com, posted Oct. 4, 2019. To comment, join the Commentary channel at www.ogj.com/oilandgascommunity.)