TotalEnergies faces 15% oil output reduction amid Middle East conflict

TotalEnergies estimated about 15% of its total oil and gas output will soon be shut in as it temporarily ceases production from operations in Qatar, Iraq, and UAE as the Iran war continues. The company provided an update on its Middle East operations Mar. 13 confirming, it said, information released on its website on Mar. 10.  

Onshore UAE production (about 210,000 b/d TotalEnergies share) is not currently affected by the conflict, the company said.

The Middle East barrels’ cash flow from operations (CFFO) is lower than the company’s portfolio average due to higher taxation, and the 15% volume reduction account for about 10% of upstream cash flow.

Growth of accretive barrels is expected to come overwhelmingly from outside the Middle East in 2026 and a higher oil price will more than offset the loss of Middle East production, TotalEnergies said, noting an $8/bbl increase in the Brent price is enough to offset the expected 2026 CFFO from the company’s Iraq, UAE offshore, and Qatar assets at $60/bbl.

Operations at the Saudi Aramco-operated Satorp refinery in which TotalEnergies partners are currently continuing normally, supplying the Saudi domestic market.

The impact of LNG production shutdowns in Qatar on TotalEnergies LNG trading activities is limited (about 2 million tonnes expected in 2026), as most Qatari LNG is marketed by QatarEnergy, the company said.