The Petroleum Services Association of Canada has trimmed its forecast for wells drilled in Canada this year by 500 units.
In a midyear update, the group now projects 2018 drilling of 7,400 wells. PSAC made its earlier projection last October (OGJ Online, Nov. 1, 2017).
It based its updated forecast on an average natural gas price of $1.75/Mcf (Can.) at the Alberta hub, a price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil of $61.45/bbl (US), and a Canada-US exchange rate averaging 79¢.
PSAC Pres. and Chief Executive Officer Tom Whalen welcomed the recent improvement in the WTI price but noted “the disconnect and volatility of the differential” between WTI and Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude.
The WCS discount has widened recently because of pipeline congestion and the growing use of more-expensive means of transport.
Compared with October numbers, the PSAC lowered its forecast for 2018 drilling in Alberta to 3,800 wells from 4,000, in British Columbia to 500 wells from 730, and in Saskatchewan to 2,840 wells from 2,930.
It raised its forecast for Manitoba drilling to 255 wells from 230.
