CERAWeek: IEA forecasts second wave of US shale production

Oil production growth is expected in producing countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries through 2023, particularly US shale production, Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency executive director, said a news conference at CERAWeek by IHS Markit in Houston.

Oil production growth is expected in producing countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries through 2023, particularly US shale production, Fatih Birol, International Energy Agency executive director, said a news conference at CERAWeek by IHS Markit in Houston.

“A second major wave of US shale production is coming,” Birol said, which he attributed to higher oil prices.

He said robust oil demand growth is anticipated worldwide at $60/bbl for US light, sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

IEA anticipates Venezuela’s production levels will continue falling, Birol said, adding IEA is closely monitoring oil output from Libya and Nigeria.

Investor interest is declining in Angola because of that’s nation’s aging field, Birol said.

Mexico’s production decline continues despite the nation’s ongoing energy reforms, but Birol said IEA expects Mexico’s production will start increasing by 2023-24.

“It will definitely happen,” Birol said of Mexico reversing its production decline.

Of oil demand growth, he said the main drivers will be China and India. The US will become the largest oil producer, but Saudi Arabia will remain the world’s largest oil exporter for years to come, he added.

He sees US and Australia natural gas as contributing to world LNG supplies.

Contact Paula Dittrick at paulad@ogjonline.com.

More in Drilling & Production