Analyst sees declining oil production in Vietnam

Analyst BMI has forecast a 3% reduction in Vietnamese oil production during 2007-18, with volumes peaking at 400,000 b/d in 2009-10 before slipping to 330,000 b/d by 2018.

Feb. 5, 2009

2 min read

Eric Watkins
OGJ Oil Diplomacy Editor

LOS ANGELES, Feb. 5 -- Analyst BMI has forecast a 3% reduction in Vietnamese oil production during 2007-18, with volumes peaking at 400,000 b/d in 2009-10 before slipping to 330,000 b/d by 2018.

In its latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report, BMI also forecasts that Vietnam's oil consumption is expected to increase by 101% during 2007-18, with growth slowing to an assumed 6%/year towards the end of the period and the country using 598,000 b/d by 2018.
Meanwhile, BMI says that Vietnam will account for just 1.51% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 4.52% of its supply.

Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40 million b/d in 2001 climbed to 25.68 million b/d in 2007 and should average 26.32 million b/d in 2008 before rising to 29.65 million b/d by 2013.

Vietnamese real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2008, down from the 2007 level of 8.5%.

BMI is assuming 7% growth in 2009, followed by 8.5% in 2010-11, about 8.2% in 2012, and 8% in 2013.

Exploration success is on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies partnering with Petrovietnam in finding and developing hydrocarbon resources, particularly gas.

BMI is assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 390,000 b/d by 2011/12, and the country is expected to produce 390,000 b/d in 2008. Consumption is forecast to increase by 6-10%/year to 2013, implying demand of 447,000 b/d by the end of the forecast period.

Natural gas
Gas demand is forecast to increase to 22 billion cu m (bcm) by 2013, from the 2007 figure of 7.7 bcm, while gas production is expected to rise to 25 bcm in 2018 from 7.7 bcm in 2007.

"With identical demand growth, we see no potential for [gas] imports or exports during the period," BMI said.

In 2007 the Asia-Pacific region as a whole consumed 421 bcm of gas, and demand of 595 bcm is expected for 2013. Production of 336 bcm in 2007 should increase to 483 bcm in 2013, so net imports of 111 bcm/year will be required in 2012, up from 85 bcm/year in 2007.

BMI notes that Vietnam's share of this gas consumption in 2007 was 1.83%, while its share of production was 2.29%. By 2013, its share of Asia-Pacific gas consumption is forecast to be 3.7%, with the country accounting for 4.55% of the area's supply.

Contact Eric Watkins at [email protected].