BMI: Norway's oil production to drop by 28.8%

Norwegian oil production will drop by 28.8% by 2018, with output slipping steadily from an estimated 2.44 million b/d in 2008 to 1.82 million b/d within 10 years, said analyst BMI.

Eric Watkins
OGJ Oil Diplomacy Editor

LOS ANGELES, May 4 -- Norwegian oil production will drop by 28.8% by 2018, with output slipping steadily from an estimated 2.44 million b/d in 2008 to 1.82 million b/d within 10 years, said analyst BMI.

With oil consumption forecast to decrease by 0.5%, Norway's exports will slide from an estimated 2.22 million b/d to 1.60 million b/d during the forecast period, BMI said in its latest Norway Oil & Gas Report.

Regarding natural gas, BMI said Norway's production should rise from an estimated 95 billion cu m (bcm) in 2008 to a peak of 120 bcm in 2012-14, before falling to 100 bcm by 2018. Most exports will continue to move through pipelines, with some LNG.

Meanwhile, BMI forecasts Norway will account for just 1.59% of developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing 50.59% to supply.

In Europe, oil consumption reached an estimated 13.75 million b/d in 2008 and is expected to rise to 14.04 million b/d by 2013.

Europe regional oil production was 6.97 million b/d in 2001 and in 2008 averaged an estimated 5 million b/d. BMI said it is set to fall to just 3.8 million b/d by 2013.

European oil imports are growing steadily, because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2008, net crude imports were estimated at 8.75 million b/d. By 2013, they are expected to have reached 10.24 million b/d.

As for natural gas, the developed Europe region in 2008 consumed an estimated 440 bcm with demand targeted at 490 bcm in 2013, representing 11.2% growth.

Estimated production of 269 bcm in 2007 should rise to 279 bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2008 level of 171 bcm to some 211 bcm.

Norway's share of European gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 1.01%, while it contributed 35.31% to production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1%, with a 42.96% contribution to regional supply.

Norwegian oil and liquids production averaged 2.45 million b/d in January. BMI expects the country's 2008 oil and liquids production to be 2.42 million b/d.

The estimated 2008 gas production of 95 bcm should continue to rise towards at least 120 bcm in 2012-13. Domestic gas consumption rising from 4.4 bcm to 4.9 bcm over the period 2008-13 suggests that net exports will rise to 115.1 bcm by the end of the forecast period.

Contact Eric Watkins at hippalus@yahoo.com.

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