The Brent crude oil contract for November gained moderately to approach $82/bbl on the London market Sept. 25, maintaining levels not seen since November 2014. US light, sweet crude for November delivery settled above $72/bbl on the New York market for a second day.
Oil prices generally have gained since August when Iran’s exports started dropping sharply ahead of US oil sanctions scheduled to be fully implemented in early November.
“The price is fundamentally justified given the potential withdrawal of more Iranian oil from the market,” said Paul Horsnell of Standard Chartered commodities research.
Standard Chartered forecast Brent will average $82/bbl for the fourth quarter. Its analysts also revised their estimate on Iran’s exports. The bank now believes Iran’s exports will fall by 1.4 million b/d by Dec. 31, up from an earlier 1 million-b/d reduction stemming from US sanctions.
US President Donald Trump in May announced a US exit from an international agreement that had lifted sanctions against Iran in exchange for that country’s cooperation regarding its nuclear program.
Separately, the US Energy Information Administration was scheduled to releases its weekly US oil and products report Sept. 26.
The Wall Street Journal survey of analysts showed those polled expect oil inventories fell by 1.3 million bbl for the week ended Sept. 21 compared with the previous week.
The American Petroleum Institute said Sept. 25 that its own data showed US oil inventories rose by 2.9 million bbl for the week ended Sept. 21.
Energy prices
The light, sweet crude contract for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 20¢ to $72.28/bbl on Sept. 25. The December contract gained 34¢ to settle at $72.10/bbl.
The NYMEX natural gas price for October gained 4¢ to a rounded $3.08/MMbtu. The Henry Hub cash gas rose 9¢ to settle at $3.14/MMbtu.
Ultralow-sulfur diesel for October climbed nearly 2¢ to a rounded $2.30/gal. The NYMEX reformulated gasoline blendstock for October added 1.3¢ to settle at a rounded $2.07/gal.
Brent crude oil for November gained 67¢ to $81.87/bbl on London’s International Commodity Exchange. The December contract rose 73¢ to $81.26/bbl. The gas oil contract for October gained $12 to settle at $713.75/tonne on Sept. 25.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ basket of crudes for Sept. 25 averaged $80.44/bbl, up $1.63.
Contact Paula Dittrick at [email protected].
