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Imports, exports
Climbing US production will result in import declines, although the declines will be smaller than last year's.
Crude oil imports are forecast to dip by 0.5% from last year and average 8.975 million b/d. In 2010, imports of crude declined by 2.1%.
Product imports will decline by 1.3% to average 2.34 million b/d following last year's 8.1% decline.
Most US oil imports last year were from Canada, followed by Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela.
US exports of crude and products will increase to average 2.9 million b/d from last year's 2.8 million b/d. In 2010, exports averaged 2.353 million b/d, according to EIA figures. Nearly all of the exported volumes are oil products. Only an estimated 42,000 b/d of crude oil was exported in 2011.
Oil inventories
Volumes of crude and products in storage declined by small amounts during 2011 and will change little this year due to lower imports and larger exports, in spite of higher oil production.
Commercial stocks in the US ended 2011 at 1.045 million bbl, down from 1.067 million bbl a year earlier. Commercial crude stocks were drawn by 2.4% to 325 million bbl.
Crude stored in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve also was drawn during 2011, finishing the year at 695.9 million bbl vs. 727 million—the reserve's capacity—a year earlier. Of the yearend 2011 inventory, sweet crude comprised 262 million bbl.
Last summer 30.64 million bbl were withdrawn and sold from the SPR as part of an IEA coordinated response to offset the oil-supply disruption caused by unrest in the Middle East, especially lost production of Libyan crude (OGJ Online, June 23, 2011).
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