The rapid growth of use of methanol in motor fuels raises a risk that the fuel market will have a greater influence on price behavior than traditional chemicals markets.
In a report on the prospects for methanol, John C. Fahy pegs the consumption of methanol during 1989 at about 18.2 million tons, compared with a world gasoline market of more than 700 million tons.
"Methanol need not capture a major share of this market, either as a blending component or alternative fuel, before it leaves chemical companies' supplies vulnerable to dominance by fuel market trends," he said.
Fahy, managing director of ERAS, energy and petrochemicals consultants, London, said the potential world market for methyl tertiary butyl ether and other ethers is considerable with growth rates of 15-20%/year predicted. No other market offers comparable growth prospects with such a high level of certainty, he said.
Methanol consumption in production of MTBE has risen from about 1.2 million metric tons in 1986 to about 2.6 million tons in 1989.
Fahy forecasts that consumption will double again in the next 5 years.
Prospects for methanol in other fuel uses are not as bright. He said the lack of acceptance of methanol blending in gasoline is unlikely to change.
A crucial factor in determining methanol as an alternative transportation fuel is its contribution to air quality.
But more rigorous tests and less variability of data are required to provide better evidence of air quality benefits.
Another factor that will figure in the future of methanol fuels is the potential benefit of reformulating gasoline to improve air quality and public health.
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