The International Energy Agency says there is a huge market opening in eastern Europe for technology to increase the clean, efficient use of energy.
IEA is stepping up its capability to analyze activities in the region, where the first steps toward market economies are under way (OGJ, July 16, p. 21).
IEA is most closely involved with Poland. A seminar organized by the Danish and Polish governments and the agency led to an IEA mission to Poland in June.
The agency says although Poland lacks the funds for pollution control technologies, some measure of environmental cleanup could be achieved in the short term through metering and control systems and the application of "the polluter pays" principle.
IEA also is sending a small delegation to Hungary to discuss its energy problems.
Japan wants to capitalize on the environmental cleanup needed in eastern Europe. Feasibility studies for installation of Japanese cleanup equipment in eastern Europe are under way by the Japan Consulting Institute (JCI), which has sent delegations to Poland and Hungary to collect information on the environmental situation.
JCI said its studies take into consideration eastern Europe's shortage of financial resources.
It will recommend use of dry exhaust gas desulfurizers designed to reduce sulfur emissions from power stations and other large industrial plants by 50%. These are substantially cheaper than wet exhaust emissions systems used in Japan, which can reduce sulfur levels by 95%.
Here is the energy situation in selected countries of eastern Europe from an analysis by Gaffney Cline Associates (GCA) of Alton, Hampshire, England:
BULGARIA
GCA does not see large investments taking place in Bulgaria's energy sector.
Because there is little prospect of discovering and developing sizable oil and gas reserves, most capital spending will go for continued development of the coal industry, where $3 billion could be spent, and power generation, which could claim $2-4 billion.
Projected spending on refining is estimated at $1 billion to upgrade existing units and build new capacity.
Since the Soviet decision to limit oil exports to its satellites in the mid-1980s, Bulgaria has turned to Algeria, Iran, Iraq, and Libya to meet the balance of requirements for its three refineries. They have a combined capacity of 290,000 b/d.
Bulgaria also is diversifying its sources of gas imports. A new pipeline to deliver Soviet gas to Greece and Yugoslavia runs through Bulgaria and will increase Soviet deliveries.
Last year Bulgaria agreed to buy 95 MMcfd from Iran starting this year. However, the gas will be delivered from the Soviet Union under an agreement between Iran and the U.S.S.R.
GCA said Bulgaria has been running an energy conservation program during the 1980s, which has held its increase in demand to 1.8%/year during 1980-88. This has been largely a result of increased use of natural gas and nuclear power. Conservation has been enforced by gasoline rationing, electrical power cuts, and a 40-50% increase in the cost of electricity.
GCA says although the desired result was achieved, industrial production suffered, and Bulgaria came up short when the U.S.S.R. demanded larger volumes of higher quality goods in exchange for energy supplies.
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
Czechoslovakia doesn't have enough energy resources. As in many other East European countries, oil demand has been restrained by increased use of natural gas and nuclear.
GCA says that with its comparatively highly developed economy, Czechoslovakia's energy position is not as dire as in some European countries.
If the country is to meet forecast oil demand, refineries must be upgraded and capacity added. GCA says this could involve outlays of $2 billion.
The country's seven refineries have a combined capacity of 455,000 b/d. Only 3,000 b/d of feedstock is produced domestically.
Natural gas production increased to 76 MMcfd in 1988 from 55 MMcfd in 1980. Plans are in hand to boost production to 150 MMcfd by the end of the decade.
Most Soviet gas exports to western Europe run through Czechoslovakia, which has resulted in an extensive pipeline network covering most major towns.
Czech imports of Soviet natural gas in 1988 were more than 1 billion cfd.
EAST GERMANY
East Germany has nine oil refineries with a combined capacity of 795,000 b/d. Most of its oil imports come from the Soviet Union, although crude has been imported from the Middle East under barter deals.
East German refineries have earned hard currency by exporting some of their products, mainly to West Germany.
Gas imports from the Soviet Union are on the rise and should be about 830 MMcfd by the end of the decade, GCA says. Increased Soviet gas supply is payment for East Germany's help in development of Yamburg gas field and construction of the Progress pipeline in the Urals and Ukraine.
Domestic gas production declined to 704 MMcfd in 1988 from 780 MMcfd in 1980.
GCA says although East Germany is the most industrially advanced country in the former eastern bloc, it has an outdated energy structure and is the most inefficient energy consumer among the U.S.S.R.'s satellites.
Primary energy demand increased 8.4% during 1980 88, with oil consumption declining in favor of locally mined coal.
An almost total lack of oil resources has forced East Germany to become the world's largest producer of lignite, with 310 million metric tons mined in 1988.
East Germany also has a significant town gas system, using lignite at the Schwarze Punipe combine in Cottbus district.
GCA says East Germany needs to spend $5 billion to maintain current gas production, with a further $4 billion required for refinery upgrading.
Klaus D. Jacoby, energy adviser to the West German industry ministry, says West German standards on emissions from new industrial plants will apply to all new units built in East Germany. Changes to existing plants will be made as soon as possible.
He says the future structure of energy supplies to East Germany must adapt to western standards with diversification of supply sources, energy conservation, strict environmental standards, and competing energy prices.
He told a conference in Paris last month, "We don't believe the state should fix the quantities of respective energies because this would resemble too closely the bad habits of planned economies.
"In the medium term, this will mean integration into the West German electricity network. It is too early to foresee which main energy sources will serve to produce electricity. But one thing is certain: The use of lignite will be limited.
HUNGARY
Hungary has maintained its oil production at about 40,000 b/d for the past 20 years and should be able to sustain 30,000-40,000 b/d for the rest of the decade. Its three refineries have a combined capacity of 220,000 b/d, with most feedstock coming from the Soviet Union.
Spending to develop natural gas resources could amount to $4 billion to 2005, said GCA, in addition to $2 billion for the upstream oil business.
Hungary's refineries also need new investment, which is likely to run about $1 billion.
In East European terms, Hungary has one of the higher private car ownership rates with one vehicle/6 1/2 persons in 1987.
Gas production has been a disappointment. GCA says despite hopes of an increase during the past decade, production slipped to 620 MMcfd in 1988 from 725 MMcfd in the mid-1980s and will decline further to 580 MMcfd by 2000.
Domestic supplies were supplemented by 510 MMcfd of imports from the Soviet Union in 1988.
POLAND
Only 3,000 b/d of the feedstock required for Poland's 385,000 b/d refining capacity comes from domestic resources. The rest is imported from the Soviet Union, with some of the imports from the West.
Poland is one of the few East European countries with plans for grassroots refining capacity with help from the Japanese.
Gas production is on the decline. Volume fell to 505 MMcfd in 1988 from 630 MMcfd in 1985. The GCA study says further declines are forecast. Imports from the Soviet Union are increasing, in payment for work on the Progress pipeline and various industrial plants, and will climb to more than 900 MMcfd soon.
Poland is starting to plan its future gas supplies. A recent official trade and industrial delegation from Norway was told the Polish gas industry is interested in supplementing its gas supplies from the Soviet Union with Norwegian gas.
Coal dominates Polish energy.
New investment in coal to meet increased demand could amount to $40-45 billion by 2005, GCA says.
There is a severe shortage of power generating capacity, and spending of $20-45 billion could be required by 2005.
ROMANIA
Romania is the only East European country with significant oil reserves. In the 1970s it was a net exporter, but production is now on the decline from the 188,000 b/d recorded in 1988.
The country's 13 refineries have a combined capacity of 617,000 b/d. Most of its imports come from the Soviet Union, although crude is purchased from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other countries for processing. Products are exported to raise hard currency.
A concerted effort will be needed to arrest the decline in oil and gas production, GCA says. Required spending will be $13 billion in the oil sector and $25 billion in the gas industry.
Refining will need further upgrading, likely to cost $6 billion, and coal exploration and development could require another $5 billion.
Romania is reported to be considering opening its sector of the Black Sea beyond the 90 m water depth mark to foreign companies. There also is a possibility that companies may be invited into joint ventures in some of the shallower waters.
Petroconsultants SA, Geneva, which just published a report on Offshore Romania, says the overview of this sector shows that at least 620 million bbl of undiscovered recoverable oil and condensate resources may be available in the four main structural units in the Romanian Black Sea. There could be 3 tcf of undiscovered gas.
In a bid to increase energy exports to bring in hard currency, the former Ceausescu regime severely cut electrical power for heating to a little as 2 hr/day and often left the population without heating fuels during the winter.
Private car ownership is the lowest in eastern Europe at one vehicle/20 persons.
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