Rystad Energy: Global FLNG capacity to more than triple by 2030
Floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) terminals are increasingly making their mark on the global LNG market, with projections from Rystad Energy indicating that their capacity could triple by 2030.
After previously facing technical and operational obstacles, FLNG projects are now reaching utilization rates similar to those of onshore terminals. As demand for LNG continues to grow and smaller gas fields become more viable, FLNG is positioning itself as a faster, more flexible, and cost-effective solution, Rystad Energy said. The projects are adept at responding to changing market conditions while also tapping into previously stranded reserves.
Rystad Energy estimates global FLNG capacity will reach 42 million tonnes/year (tpy) by 2030, climbing to 55 million tpy by 2035, almost four times the 14.1 million tpy recorded in 2024. Terminals commissioned before 2024 achieved an average utilization rate of 86.5% in 2024 and 76% to date in 2025, figures comparable to global onshore LNG plants, according to Rystad.
"FLNG has come a long way in less than a decade. The only real roadblocks were early teething issues that come with any new technology, as seen with projects like Shell’s Prelude, which faced cost overruns and unstable output. But since then, the industry has matured significantly, including Prelude itself," said Kaushal Ramesh, vice-president, gas and LNG research, Rystad Energy.
FLNG economics
"Utilization rates are improving, the technology is proving reliable across a range of environments, and the economics are starting to make more sense. From navigating permitting challenges in Canada to unlocking remote offshore reserves in Africa and Asia, FLNG is finally going mainstream," he continued.
Without a prior blueprint to follow, early FLNG projects, such as Shell's Prelude, built in South Korea by the Technip–Samsung consortium, became a negative demonstration of FLNG's early limitations. Costs ballooned to $2,114/tonne for liquefaction alone. As the industry gained operational and construction experience, capital expenditure per tonne has declined significantly, bringing costs in line with onshore LNG projects, Rystad Energy said.
Proposed developments along the US Gulf Coast now average around $1,054/tonne. The proposed US Delfin FLNG sits just above that average at $1,134/tonne, while Coral South FLNG in Mozambique, which is similar in scale, reports a comparable liquefaction cost of $1,062/tonne.
That said, project concepts are not entirely comparable, Rystad said. Some are complex integrated producers with upstream components as part of the LNG infrastructure, while others simply liquefy pipeline-spec gas.
In parallel, Rystad said, FLNG developers are increasingly turning to vessel conversions as a cost-efficient alternative to newbuild infrastructure.
Tortue/Ahmeyim FLNG, Cameroon FLNG, and Southern Energy’s FLNG MK II have achieved notably lower capex levels of $640, $500, and $630/tonne, respectively, by repurposing Moss-type LNG carriers. The conversions benefit from the vessels’ modular spherical tank design, which allows for simpler integration of prefabricated liquefaction modules, Rystad said. With several Moss-type LNG tankers expected to retire in the coming years, more could be repurposed, expanding the pipeline of lower-cost FLNG solutions.
Versatility
FLNG vessels are demonstrating operational versatility in a variety of settings, ranging from deepwater to ultra-deepwater fields, as well as onshore supply scenarios. If projects encounter delays, the vessels can be relocated or sold.
In the current energy environment, where markets remain tight but face the risk of oversupply, speed to first production is critical, Rystad said, as extended construction timelines delay revenue generation and expose projects to a higher risk of cost overruns.
Rystad Energy data also shows that FLNG units can be delivered significantly faster than onshore liquefaction plants, enabling quicker final investment decisions and more agile execution.
On average, newbuild FLNG projects are completed in about 3 years, compared with about 4.5 years (capacity-weighted) for operational onshore plants. For FLNG vessels currently under construction, the average projected build time is even lower at 2.85 years. TThe accelerated timeline is one factor in the growing preference for FLNG, as developers seek to minimize exposure and accelerate returns.