Soviet officials fear the U.S.S.R. may face a serious energy shortfall this winter if temperatures fall below seasonal averages.
The world's No. 1 oil and gas producing nation already has reported spot shortages of petroleum products, natural gas, and coal for industrial and other use. Total Soviet energy production during the first 9 months of 1990 was below 1989 levels, with little or no improvement expected during the rest of the year.
Only warmer than normal temperatures prevented power shortages during the past several winters, said the Moscow newspaper Izvestia. "But now the nation as a whole is literally at death's door."
Rumors of tight oil, gas, and coal supplies have swept Moscow, Izvestia said.
"The city council's executive committee has assured the populace that adequate fuel is on hand. But if it weren't for the physical impossibility of doing so, citizens would be hoarding fuel oil and coal in their apartments.
"There would be a mad rush to buy electric heaters. This hasn't happened only because there is a chronic shortage of such appliances."
Adding to Soviet jitters over fuel supplies this winter are continuing media reports of threatened strikes by petroleum and coal industry workers demanding higher wages and better working conditions.
Some fuel distributors reportedly plan to rein deliveries during the final months of this year in hopes of profiting from a doubling of official wholesale prices slated to go in effect Jan. 1.
GAS PRODUCTION
Unlike Soviet oil and coal production, which fell 4-5% during the first three quarters of 1990 vs. the same 1989 period, gas flow increased by more than 2.5%. However, the sharp decline in gas pipeline construction during 1989 and early this year, together with the relatively small capacity of Soviet underground gas storage sites, gives the U.S.S.R. very limited means to boost gas deliveries during periods of maximum demand.
While the U.S.S.R.'s gas production continues to rise, the 1990 increase of less than 3% is proportionately the smallest since the end of World War II. In 1989, gas flow rose 3.4%, in 1988 by 5.9%, in 1987 by 6%, and in 1986 by 6.7%.
Falling fuel oil production, reduced volume and quality of coal output, and the big shortfall in electrical power generation by nuclear plants have increased natural gas demand. So has the failure to meter gas usage in housing units and the inaccuracy of equipment measuring industrial gas consumption.
Soviet officials hope the sharp jumps in wholesale fuel prices next year will reduce demand.
ELECTRICAL POWER
The U.S.S.R.'s power generation continues to show smaller increases than planned. This year's gain probably will be close to the 1% hike reported for 1989.
Nuclear power production was hit hard in the aftermath of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Plans for building new nuclear power stations have been canceled following protests by local authorities, existing units have been shut down, and fearful citizens have picketed construction projects still under way.
Moscow officials complain that the Soviet Union has a reserve capacity of only about 4% to meet its maximum electrical power demand. Izvestia said by comparison the U.S. has a 30% capacity reserve to satisfy peak electricity loads.
The energy situation in some areas of the U.S.S.R. is close to catastrophic, the newspaper declared. New consumers, including housing units, schools, and child care centers, sometimes have neither heat, hot water, nor electric lights because they have not been hooked up to overloaded power grids.
Plans have been made by a number of local authorities to shut down some industrial plants this winter when energy demand exceeds supply. Even when electrical power is available, obsolete equipment frequently leads to power failures, Izvestia said.
"ALARMING SHORTAGE"
The Moscow newspaper Pravda this month said the U.S.S.R.'s "alarming gas shortage" had hit nearly all regions of the nation. It published excerpts from letters it had received from angry readers.
In Kazakhstan's Karaganda Province, gas was not being delivered to many dwellings, although the first freezing weather was expected very soon. Drivers of vehicles recently converted from conventional fuels to compressed natural gas found that CNG suddenly was not available.
More than 140 buses stood idle in the city of Karaganda. CNG powered trucks couldn't deliver supplies to hospitals and other public facilities or to construction projects.
Telegrams sent to the U.S.S.R.'s Council of Ministers pleading for help went unanswered, Pravda said.
In Pskov Province, bottled LPG used for cooking could not be obtained. Gas for houses was not turned on by local authorities in Corky Province, and Moscow residents said children were becoming ill from the cold.
"Millions of people are being seriously affected by the gas problem," Pravda reported.
The newspaper Trud said cans of black market gasoline were selling for as much as 30 rubles in Krasnodar, north of the Causcasus Mountains. It added that high octane gasoline was available only to ambulances, police cars, and some taxis because of an equipment failure at a nearby refinery.
Gasoline sales were limited to 20 l. Hours of operation were curtailed for all service stations.
in western Siberia's Novosibirsk Province, thousands of liters of gasoline were being stolen from a products pipeline. At the same time, gasoline could not be obtained for combines and trucks used for grain and vegetable harvesting in the area.
ARMENIAN SITUATION
The worst fuel crisis early this fall developed in the Armenian Soviet Republic. Tass news agency said despite earlier reports to the contrary (OGJ, Sept. 17, p. 36), natural gas deliveries by pipeline via neighboring Azerbaijan had not been resumed in the wake of an interruption that began Aug. 20 because of civil unrest.
Tass said with the onset of cold weather in October, many Armenian schools, apartments, and factories had no gas. Valves on the gas pipeline from fields in the Russian Republic were closed at Azerbaijan's Kazakh compressor station.
The news agency reported Armenia had suffered enormous economic losses totaling hundreds of million of rubles because of the gas cutoff. Armenia had been receiving about 1.4 million cu m/day through the pipeline, or about 60% of the republic's fuel supply before the blockade.
Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in bloody ethnic strife for years. Besides the halt in gas deliveries by pipeline, highway and railroad transportation between the two republics has frequently been blocked.
Copyright 1990 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.